Another new Brexit thread

[Chippy_boy]

And you end up with No Deal after the transition period.

No Vic, we end up with a deal, because unlike in May's WA, we have a useful negotiating position and an EU which does not want us to leave with no deal.

 

[Ban-jani]

There is no-one and absolutely nothing which could be worse that May's GE campaign. It is the zero against whilst all other efforts can be calibrated. For some bizarre reason, many people find Johnson quite charismatic and appealing. No human thought that of Theresa May.

If this goes through tomorrow Johnson will won a Cameron 2015 size majority.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I agree, even as a Remain voter who detests Johnson’s lies.

He’s keeping them on side, hoping this gets voted in, he’ll then likely win a huge majority, some of them will be in powerful positions or won’t be needed due to such majority and he’ll backtrack on no deal later by negotiating a FTA.

I mean, the EU won’t want no deal either. Why would he not try and secure a FTA once a WA passes? It makes zero sense for him to absolutely destroy the economy when he’s already won, just to appease a group of MP’s he likely won’t need by then.

I’m going to be completely honest here as I often try to be... this is just ardent remainer crap that’s not going to happen.

Spot on.

 

[blueinsa]

I agree, even as a Remain voter who detests Johnson’s lies.

He’s keeping them on side, hoping this gets voted in, he’ll then likely win a huge majority, some of them will be in powerful positions or won’t be needed due to such majority and he’ll backtrack on no deal later by negotiating a FTA.

I mean, the EU won’t want no deal either. Why would he not try and secure a FTA once a WA passes? It makes zero sense for him to absolutely destroy the economy when he’s already won, just to appease a group of MP’s he likely won’t need by then.

I’m going to be completely honest here as I often try to be... this is just ardent remainer crap that’s not going to happen.

Like Chippy we have nearly got you.

 

[Rascal]

I get the feeling that power isn't important here in the short term and i will ask @Rascal to maybe elaborate and say I'm right or talking shit but the party becoming a true socialist party of the left is far more important to them and the real goal.

.

What is power without principle and what is principle without power. An intriguing Philosophical question.

As a man of principle I want a Socialist Labour Party, a party I believe that given the right circumstances is electable. The one shining light at the end of the Brexit tunnel, is that leaving makes a Socialism a reality that was not a viable option under the auspices of the EU. Labour should have made the case for leave, but it was hamstrung by the Blairite faction who morphed into the Anti-Corbyn FBFE twitterati movement. They are as extreme as the ERG and as fucking idiotic. They will be sore and hurting that Johnson got a deal, all those metropolitan middle class pseudo liberals are not Socialists but as Eric Hobsbawn the eminent Socialist/Communist philosopher observed Labour needs to have a coalition of the Working class and the middle class to be in power due to there being a strand of the working class that identify with the politics of capital.

Labour needs to attract back those voters it lost under Blair, the party paid a huge price for the Iraq war and if it sensible, which I believe the next manifesto will be because the Tories will be gripped with post Brexit fever then yes power is possible. I am not going to trade my principles in for power under any circumstances, I have done that before and the Iraq War and the Blair government destroyed my faith in centre ground social democracy.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I actually think that, somewhat perversely, Corbyn’s best (some might say only) chance of winning the forthcoming election is to back the WA tomorrow. That will mean that, in the public’s mind at least, Brexit is done. Election is then about austerity, NHS, schools and the like, all areas where labour poll well. Not only that, it might just be like 1945 when the Conservatives, under war hero Winston Churchill, couldn’t see how they couldn’t win but the election but got absolutely battered.
Then again, it might not be his best option........

 

[blueinsa]

Controversial opinion. Johnson is lying to them. Johnson is always lying to someone and my bet is that’s it the ERG mob. He needs their votes. But think about it. Why wait 14 months to trigger a no deal scenario? Tories may not even be in power in 14 months. Would make more sense to refuse to do a deal with the EU, get a three month extension forced on him, fight an election as the no deal champion, win it and then no deal in January.

Just a thought.

A bad one.

Honestly its a ridiculous suggestion mate and a figment of imagination that you might want to be true because it backs your argument up but its not based on any reality.

 

[Chippy_boy]

If this goes through tomorrow Johnson will won a Cameron 2015 size majority.

Honestly, I think bigger than that. Much bigger. I think he'd consolidate his +15 point lead and end up with a 80 seat majority or maybe even more.

Labour are all over the floor whilst that imbecile Corbyn is at the helm with Lenin and Abbot at his side. They are unelectable. The only question is how damaged the Tories would be in the next GE and if they have delivered Brexit, the answer would be "not at all".

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

What is power without principle and what is principle without power. An intriguing Philosophical question.

As a man of principle I want a Socialist Labour Party, a party I believe that given the right circumstances is electable. The one shining light at the end of the Brexit tunnel, is that leaving makes a Socialism a reality that was not a viable option under the auspices of the EU. Labour should have made the case for leave, but it was hamstrung by the Blairite faction who morphed into the Anti-Corbyn FBFE twitterati movement. They are as extreme as the ERG and as fucking idiotic. They will be sore and hurting that Johnson got a deal, all those metropolitan middle class pseudo liberals are not Socialists but as Eric Hobsbawn the eminent Socialist/Communist philosopher observed Labour needs to have a coalition of the Working class and the middle class to be in power due to there being a strand of the working class that identify with the politics of capital.

Labour needs to attract back those voters it lost under Blair, the party paid a huge price for the Iraq war and if it sensible, which I believe the next manifesto will be because the Tories will be gripped with post Brexit fever then yes power is possible. I am not going to trade my principles in for power under any circumstances, I have done that before and the Iraq War and the Blair government destroyed my faith in centre ground social democracy.

Even if jezza finished today, he's successfuly recalibrated politics in this country so there is some semblance of a left wing instead of the cosy cabal of the center right where the likes of Blair or umuna could fit into any of the three main partys simply by changing the colour of their ties.

 

[Mike D]

A bad one.

Honestly its a ridiculous suggestion mate and a figment of imagination that you might want to be true because it backs your argument up but its not based on any reality.

Bonkers you are not going to out Facist Farage going on a No Deal ticket has very limited appeal and would not win an election not a hope in hell.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

And you end up with No Deal after the transition period.

I don't think this will be the case. The only practical reassurance I can offer you is that Farage and co are not happy. If they were, then I think you'd be right.

 

[Ban-jani]

Like Chippy we have nearly got you.

It’s not about getting me or not, I just look at everything to try and be as objective as possible.

 

[Coatigan]

He shouldn't offer her anything. He should restrict Scottish MPs votes on English only matters and start scaling the back the block grant discrepancy and make the UK a fairer place to love in.

And again strengthen the case for independence with that, of all 3 other nations.

I'd have no issue with English only matters excluding three other nations' MPs.

But. There ARE no English only matters, as England doesnt have a parliament. Westminster is England's defacto parliament, and England has the largest number of MPs, it can't be turned into an English only parliament, there would be no point to the Union at all.

 

[The blue phantom]

Honestly, I think bigger than that. Much bigger. I think he'd consolidate his +15 point lead and end up with a 80 seat majority or maybe even more.

Labour are all over the floor whilst that imbecile Corbyn is at the helm with Lenin and Abbot at his side. They are unelectable. The only question is how damaged the Tories would be in the next GE and if they have delivered Brexit, the answer would be "not at all".

And what if they havnt delivered Brexit and there's a general election? As me and Blueinsa were saying last night, Farage could still blow the whole fuckin thing up. Big if, but i wouldn't rule anything out of this shitstorm.

Anyway current betting on the vote tomorrow 5/4 Yes 8/11 No

 

[Rascal]

I know you are passionate @Rascal so genuine question... if you are advocating redistributing resources to help the hungry how will you get the bone idle off their arses to make sure you focus on those who really need the support?

That's the flaw for me... people take liberties and @Labour /socialists would simply keep dishing out free stuff... to anybody

That's a recipe for disaster

One of the great questions about the welfare state. In every society there will be those who swing the lead, always has been, probably always will be. But do we judge society on them or on those who deserve compassion and help? I believe the latter.

IDS came up with the concept of focused support for the disabled, what that meant in effect that those who were the most severely disabled got a bit more, but those who were averagely disabled got a lot less. This was judged by an absolute joke of a form which was so ambigious many who should have been classed as severe where downgraded.

Labour has always believed that everyone should work, one of its core principles was the achievement of Full Employment. However full employment is not good for business as full employment means wages rise and profits fall. Thatcher was quite happy for their to be a transient workforce which kept wages low and was happy to sign people off as sick to adjust the figures to hide the consequences. Hence we got the generation "scroungers" effect. It is not surprising to me that it happened.

 

[Mike D]

I actually think that, somewhat perversely, Corbyn’s best (some might say only) chance of winning the forthcoming election is to back the WA tomorrow. That will mean that, in the public’s mind at least, Brexit is done. Election is then about austerity, NHS, schools and the like, all areas where labour poll well. Not only that, it might just be like 1945 when the Conservatives, under war hero Winston Churchill, couldn’t see how they couldn’t win but the election but got absolutely battered.
Then again, it might not be his best option........

They only way that they could achieve that would be having another referendum tagged on to it. Just holding up the white flag waving Johnson's deal through will not bode well with lots of voters particulary remain voters.

 

[Chippy_boy]

And what if they havnt delivered Brexit and there's a general election? As me and Blueinsa were saying last night, Farage could still blow the whole fuckin thing up. Big if, but i wouldn't rule anything out of this shitstorm.

Anyway current betting on the vote tomorrow 5/4 Yes 8/11 No

Absolutely agree with that. I said so a few posts back. All bets are off if Johnson is prevented from getting his deal through. In that case the next GE will be won by the party that loses least badly, whichever that is.

 

[Coatigan]

Lot of chickens being counted by the supporters of the deal. I’d say it is too close to call with the bookies slightly favouring rejection with the odds slightly lengthening for acceptance. A lot could change over the next 22 hours. I suspect there will be more than a handful of MPs who won’t decide until the debate tomorrow.

Exactly. A bit of this cautious optimism wouldnt go amiss. I can see the deal being passed. But i cal also see this giddiness being stretched out some more. All still up for grabs.

 

[bluejon]

Honestly, I think bigger than that. Much bigger. I think he'd consolidate his +15 point lead and end up with a 80 seat majority or maybe even more.

Labour are all over the floor whilst that imbecile Corbyn is at the helm with Lenin and Abbot at his side. They are unelectable. The only question is how damaged the Tories would be in the next GE and if they have delivered Brexit, the answer would be "not at all".

You're probably right, so we can look forward to another 5 years of the tory party bumming this country. Yay.

 

[Bluemanc100]

One of the great questions about the welfare state. In every society there will be those who swing the lead, always has been, probably always will be. But do we judge society on them or on those who deserve compassion and help? I believe the latter.

IDS came up with the concept of focused support for the disabled, what that meant in effect that those who were the most severely disabled got a bit more, but those who were averagely disabled got a lot less. This was judged by an absolute joke of a form which was so ambigious many who should have been classed as severe where downgraded.

Labour has always believed that everyone should work, one of its core principles was the achievement of Full Employment. However full employment is not good for business as full employment means wages rise and profits fall. Thatcher was quite happy for their to be a transient workforce which kept wages low and was happy to sign people off as sick to adjust the figures to hide the consequences. Hence we got the generation "scroungers" effect. It is not surprising to me that it happened.

Wow... so it was Thatcher’s fault.. I’ve heard her blamed for some things but not sure I’ve heard that one before..

I realise it’s a conundrum hence the question so thanks for the explanation