COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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kaz7 said:
That is very sad, i assume it was mentioned as a contributary factor and not the main cause of death though, if has to be recorded , they follow it backwards , if they were going to die then their primary cause of death should be their primary condition , covid has to be recorded but there are places to put it on a death certificate and not the primary cause of death
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All I can say is the families in both cases did not agree, but... it is what it is. TBF I did not intrude on private grief.
 
Around three-quarters of medics in urgent and acute care believe hospitals are not prepared to cope over the next six months, a survey has found.in addition, just under three-quarters (70%) believe they will not be able to provide the level of care they want over the same period

news.sky.com

Coronavirus: Hospitals 'not prepared to cope over next six months', say medics

A survey reveals just under three-quarters believe they will not be able to provide the level of care they want this winter.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
mackenzie said:
It is extremely hard, there's no other way to describe it.
I think the dark nights and winter approaching is adding to the feeling, that we all have, that all is doom and gloom.
We need to remember that there WILL be an end to it at some point. If nothing else, there will be "lighter" days (in more ways than one) and easier times eventually. Just imagine how much more we will enjoy everyday life when that happens.
I read your posts on here and can see how hard it has been for you, but hold on and try and find things to take pleasure in....maybe something you overlooked when life was "normal." Even if it's just a walk everyday in the fresh air, seeing nature and taking some time away from the media etc.
Take photos when you go out, get a photo album and put them in. Chronicle your journey through all this, but in a positive way.
I know it probably all sounds crap but it did actually work for me when I suffered similarly 20 years back. Meds helped too..just used them to get me over the blip and they did. Came off them after.

..
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Thank you.
However we will be grappling with this for a lot of 2021
I'm expecting the same shit this time next year, I hope I'm wrong.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Most estimates are in the region of 0.5-1%, termed the IFR (infection frequency rate).

It varies radically by age, and is approximately double for men vs women

See for instance

www.nature.com

The coronavirus is most deadly if you are older and male — new data reveal the risks

A slew of detailed studies has now quantified the increased risk the virus poses to older people, men, and other groups.
www.nature.com www.nature.com

1% of the uk population is ~600,000 people. Whether that's super low or not is a matter of opinion.
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I’m not trivialising it. But I don’t think the figures can be taken as fact. Everytime the bbc do their figures there is an * saying it includes anyone who died 28 days after a positive test. Be interesting to disclose the deaths from other issues and work it out that way
 
oman0115 said:
I’m not trivialising it. But I don’t think the figures can be taken as fact. Everytime the bbc do their figures there is an * saying it includes anyone who died 28 days after a positive test. Be interesting to disclose the deaths from other issues and work it out that way
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That rule is more likely to lead to an under recording of deaths mate.
 
cleavers said:
Why ? She's done just as bad as he has clearly, for their population size arguably worse.
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Yep and she kept them in a longer lockdown. Roughly 2 weeks more, I believe. Not only that, she made a few tweaks of her own just to be going on with. Look how that's playing out now.
'Don't blame on the sunshine,
Don't blame it on the moonlight,
Don't blame it on the good times,
Blame it on Blackpool.'
 
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oman0115 said:
I’m not trivialising it. But I don’t think the figures can be taken as fact. Everytime the bbc do their figures there is an * saying it includes anyone who died 28 days after a positive test. Be interesting to disclose the deaths from other issues and work it out that way
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See the excess deaths plot from ONS posted above. Excess deaths are now approaching 60,000.

There is no other explanation for these.

www.bmj.com

UK’s record on pandemic deaths

Recent changes in definition can’t disguise the UK’s poor international ranking The grim daily count of covid-19 deaths in the UK is nearing single digits.1 Although what’s around the corner is unpredictable, it’s timely to take stock after the recent tsunami of deaths. Evidence of the UK’s...
www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
 
Bellamy's Caddy said:
I think everyone's pretty angry, scared and frustrated at the moment. People have concerns, for their family, friends and themselves. Aside from health risks, which absolutely is the most serious, we are also dealing with the biggest change to our way of life since the second World War. It's an ever changing situation that we're still all coming to terms with and that brings with it separate challenges to mental and physical well-being.

During the summer it felt like there was light at the end of the tunnel, but things have got a little darker again recently and it's really worrying now to think about what the winter might look like.

There have been severe failings in decision making and communication throughout the pandemic. Which now leads people to question all the decisions being made. When you hear that the SAGE advice for a circuit break lockdown was ignored after everything else we've been through, its pretty hard not to worry about the decisions the government are making on our behalf.

I suspect the truth is that if things have got this bad this quickly, they are reluctant to bring in the strongest possible measures until its very much a last resort, not as a preemptive measure and that's the balance they talk about with the economy and other factors (just my take on it).

There's anger and frustration everywhere at the moment; with the situation, with the government and with each other. It's shit no matter which way you look at it. Everyone just wants to get through this and get back to some semblance of normality, even with social distancing and necessary safety measures.

I think the most depressing thing for an awful lot of people is that they have no faith in anything the government are doing, or have done pretty much throughout the pandemic. As much as I dislike Boris Johnson, no one would be happier than me to be able to turn round and say I doubted him before, but he's more than proven me wrong etc. Instead he's actually been more useless than even I would have thought, its not just him though, its the whole lightweight cabinet, serco track and trace and the billions of pounds of dodgy contracts handed out to tory contact etc. A cluster fuck of epic proportions throughout.

I would love to be positive, but the way the numbers are going and the way things have been handled so far just don't suggest things are getting any better. I sincerely hope the new tier system works and we start to see improvements in the next few weeks.

As ever a big thanks to @Healdplace @ayrshire_blue and the others that put so much time in to this thread and for all the information they provide on a daily basis. It isn't always pleasant reading, but it does help give an indication of how we're doing and where we might be headed. I just hope the numbers start to go back down and there's positive news on a vaccine soon.
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Good post but I would say that the UK government doesn’t have a monopoly on this but understand and recognize that BoJo’s particular skill sets are not best suited for a pandemic as you need to have a forensic mind and pay attention to details.

this is an extract from an open letter that the 6 regional medical doctors from Portugal sent to the health minister here today which is a reminder to how hard a task this is to resolve for every government around the planet. catch 22s everwhere.

The six doctors stress that the first wave saw 100,000 surgeries, six million consultations and 17 million exams ‘put on hold’. The angst this caused patients was beyond description. The message is: it cannot be allowed to happen a second time – particularly as the health system is only now ‘starting to recover from the disruption of the last few months’.The six doctors stress that the first wave saw 100,000 surgeries, six million consultations and 17 million exams ‘put on hold’. The angst this caused patients was beyond description. The message is: it cannot be allowed to happen a second time – particularly as the health system is only now ‘starting to recover from the disruption of the last few months’.
 
GM scoreboard:

I am adding the weekly case numvers and the Weekly Pop Score (as in cases per 100K on the govt red watch lists)

Manchester: 328 - down from 401. Total cases 13,687. Weekly 2530. Pop score up 60 to 2476. Wkly Pop score 458.

Salford 178 - up from 163. Total cases 5079. Weekly 977. Pop score up 68 to 1962. Wkly Pop score 375.

Bolton 150 - down fron 187. Total cases 6680. Weekly 944. Pop score up 52 to 2323. Wkly Pop score 328.

Oldham 122 - down from 167. Total cases 5972. Weekly 897. Pop score up 52 to 2519. Wkly Pop score 379.

Trafford 116 - up from 110. Total cases 3915. Weekly 787. Pop score up 48 to 1649. Wkly Pop score 331.

Rochdale 113 - down from 177. Total cases 5162. Weekly 895. Pop score up 51 tp 2321. Wkly Pop score 403.

Bury 111 - down from 124. Total cases 4041. Weekly 703. Pop score up 58 to 2116. Wkly Pop score 368.

Stockport 111 - down from 140. Total cases 4378. Weekly 843. Pop score up 38 to 1492. Wkly Pop score 284.

Tameside 96 - down from 162, Total cases 4414, Weekly 694.Pop score up 42 to 1949. Wkly Pop score 407.

Wigan 90 - down from 250!!! Total cases 5767. Weekly 1257, Pop score up 34 to 1786. Wkly Pop score 414.


So assuming no data glitch may prove the day Wigan turns around, Best pop score of the day huge surprise. Manchester on pop score measure at 60 had worst day but not by much reflecting its improvements as most students have presumably now caught it, Tameside nicks best weekly crown from Bury. Tameside and Salford avoided the 2000 club for another day at least. Stockport's lead as lowest Pop score over Trafford increases to 157.

Day to day cases fluctuate because they get allocated over next few days to the actual day when the test was done (so are really only a good guide to totals over in general). Weekly totals better guide to how this is tracking. The pop score balamnces the different size of each borough so takes account of 200 cases in Manchester being relarively less bad than 200 in Bury as more people/more cases. So allows direct comoarison between different placea and why a version of that weekly pop score (basically total cases in 7 days v 100K opuation) is used to dedcide if a place has problems and needs special measures.
 
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BLUEMATT23 said:
Thank you.
However we will be grappling with this for a lot of 2021
I'm expecting the same shit this time next year, I hope I'm wrong.
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Possibly. But every day will be nearer to "normality."
I know it's really difficult, but please understand that shit times CAN be overcome and if you need to talk to someone at any time then it's only a phone call, or a pm, away.
I'm sure I'm not alone in seeing how you are struggling but you need to realise that you just need to reach out if things get really bad xx
 
Closing down an industry and risking losing so many fucking jobs and messing up
Lives over 300 daily cases in Manchester and the numbers are already coming down. How the fuck can they make this decision based on the information they have it’s outrageous. When do we say enough is enough? Are we going to go in and out of lockdown every month for two weeks to pause the spread and let it carry on when people are allowed back out. Time for business owners in the north to stand up for themselves and refuse this nonsense
 
BigJoe#1 said:
View attachment 3808
You are correct.
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There are two stats:

Case fatality rate and Infection fatality rate.

The infection fatality rate for Covid is currently thought to be around 0.5% but more difficult to measure as you need to know the numbers infected to work it out.

The case fatality rate would be better described as a confirmed case fatality rate and then it would be more apparent what it represents. Clearly if you increase the no. of tests you do then you can reduce the Case fatality rate.

The infection fatality rate could be expected to have declined significantly in the UK because:

1) Improvements in medicine.
2) Shift in age profile. The young realise they have little too fear whilst the old are shielding so exposure changing.
3) Sadly the numbers of very vulnerable people who were nearing the end of their lives will have dropped.
 
mackenzie said:
Possibly. But every day will be nearer to "normality."
I know it's really difficult, but please understand that shit times CAN be overcome and if you need to talk to someone at any time then it's only a phone call, or a pm, away.
I'm sure I'm not alone in seeing how you are struggling but you need to realise that you just need to reach out if things get really bad xx
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A tad condescending that reply.
 
Blu3m00n91 said:
Closing down an industry and risking losing so many fucking jobs and messing up
Lives over 300 daily cases in Manchester and the numbers are already coming down. How the fuck can they make this decision based on the information they have it’s outrageous. When do we say enough is enough? Are we going to go in and out of lockdown every month for two weeks to pause the spread and let it carry on when people are allowed back out. Time for business owners in the north to stand up for themselves and refuse this nonsense
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allways said it and continue to do so,when the house repossessions start and the rest of the shit hits the fan it will end up in national riots
 
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