COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Status
Not open for further replies.
True_Blue69 said:
I know you're in favour of a hardline lockdown but everyone knows that they estimate that have been tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths of other causes. There's your explanation.

Also noticed you're still claiming that the IFR may be 1%. Again you're just coming up with the most negative figure you can find and quoting that. It's nowhere near that.
Click to expand...
The IFR cannot be known as it is a calculation based on two unknowns namely the number of people who have died from Covid and the number of people who have been infected with Covid.
The best shot at an estimate in the UK came from a study that looked at seroprevalence data across the UK they estimated it at around 1% .

Oh and we certainly don't know that there have been tens of thousands of uneccessary deaths from other causes.
 
Cityfan said:
The IFR cannot be known as it is a calculation based on two unknowns namely the number of people who have died from Covid and the number of people who have been infected with Covid.
The best shot at an estimate in the UK came from a study that looked at seroprevalence data across the UK they estimated it at around 1% .

Oh and we certainly don't know that there have been tens of thousands of uneccessary deaths from other causes.
Click to expand...
No because it wasn't investigated, if you had covid and died with in 28 days the cause of death was covid. It could lead to a misrepresentation.... Especially for those in the vulnerable groups.
 
Marvin said:
There are two stats:

Case fatality rate and Infection fatality rate.

The infection fatality rate for Covid is currently thought to be around 0.5% but more difficult to measure as you need to know the numbers infected to work it out.

The case fatality rate would be better described as a confirmed case fatality rate and then it would be more apparent what it represents. Clearly if you increase the no. of tests you do then you can reduce the Case fatality rate.

The infection fatality rate could be expected to have declined significantly in the UK because:

1) Improvements in medicine.
2) Shift in age profile. The young realise they have little too fear whilst the old are shielding so exposure changing.
3) Sadly the numbers of very vulnerable people who were nearing the end of their lives will have dropped.
Click to expand...
Infection fatality rate is surely smaller simply because of the increased number of infections?
 
Cityfan said:
The IFR cannot be known as it is a calculation based on two unknowns namely the number of people who have died from Covid and the number of people who have been infected with Covid.
The best shot at an estimate in the UK came from a study that looked at seroprevalence data across the UK they estimated it at around 1% .

Oh and we certainly don't know that there have been tens of thousands of uneccessary deaths from other causes.
Click to expand...
Study on IFR.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Additional deaths without covid on death cert.

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-...-changes-to-all-mortality-during-the-pandemic
 
andyhinch said:
Look, all the facts fit his narrative I don’t know why people question it and even ask for a reputable source ?
Click to expand...

Not really, people believe what they want to believe clearly and I've just posted some studies with all the info in. No one still believes the IFR is 1% is ridiculous to even suggest it.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Study on IFR.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Additional deaths without covid on death cert.

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-...-changes-to-all-mortality-during-the-pandemic
Click to expand...
From the beginning of March 2020 up until 24 July, there were almost 58,000 excess deaths in England and Wales. These refer to deaths in 2020 compared to the average deaths over the past 5 years during the same period. Over 51,000 of these deaths mentioned ‘COVID-19’ on the death certificate. This leaves approximately 7,000 additional deaths since March compared to the average of previous years. Currently, little is known about the causes of this increase
 
Having my nightly read on vaccines and I1 in phase 3 trials. We will get one early next year and a way out of this.
 
BigJoe#1 said:
Which is why maybe comparing weekly deaths year on year might give a clearer picture, as it clearly did in March / April.

It is tragic what is happening and there is no single way to fix it.

Genuinely sorry to learn of your loss.
Click to expand...
Thank-you, that's kind of you. TBF I was not close to him myself, although my wife is very upset as you can imagine.
 
kaz7 said:
From the beginning of March 2020 up until 24 July, there were almost 58,000 excess deaths in England and Wales. These refer to deaths in 2020 compared to the average deaths over the past 5 years during the same period. Over 51,000 of these deaths mentioned ‘COVID-19’ on the death certificate. This leaves approximately 7,000 additional deaths since March compared to the average of previous years. Currently, little is known about the causes of this increase
Click to expand...

Yeah that's my point. Original poster was trying to say the excess were all covid deaths when everyone knows that there have been a lot of deaths caused as a result of lockdown and the NHS not being funny operational. Realistically there are probably even more as we all know that not all deaths with covid on the death certificate were as a result of covid, but 7k is the lowest figure.
 

True_Blue69 said:
Yeah that's my point. Original poster was trying to say the excess were all covid deaths when everyone knows that there have been a lot of deaths caused as a result of lockdown and the NHS not being funny operational. Realistically there are probably even more as we all know that not all deaths with covid on the death certificate were as a result of covid, but 7k is the lowest figure.
Click to expand...
I was reacting to the hundreds of thousands you mentioned here

I know you're in favour of a hardline lockdown but everyone knows that they estimate that have been tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths of other causes. There's your explanation.
 
kaz7 said:
I was reacting to the hundreds of thousands you mentioned here

I know you're in favour of a hardline lockdown but everyone knows that they estimate that have been tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths of other causes. There's your explanation.
Click to expand...

Tens of thousands I said, only 3k off! It was reported that a high percentage of the excess deaths were as a result of lockdown, sure they said a quarter but I can't remember.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top