COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[roubaixtuesday]

No one still believes the IFR is 1% is ridiculous to even suggest it.

Other than the "slew of studies" referred to in the nature article I referenced, that is...

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Realistically there are probably even more as we all know that not all deaths with covid on the death certificate were as a result of covid, but 7k is the lowest figure.

And, yet again, rather than your uninformed speculation, you'll be able to provide a reputable source backing this up.

 

[Cityfan]

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/estimating-the-infection-fatality-ratio-in-england/

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

As pointed out before the cebm paper estimates the IFR at the beginning of their series as between 0.67% and 2.3% it fell later in August when younger people were getting it.
1% is quite plausible for the UK in the first wave, there are council areas where the absolute mortality from Covid was 0.15%, which would represent an IFR of 1% if 15% of people were infected.

 

[cleavers]

It is extremely hard, there's no other way to describe it.
I think the dark nights and winter approaching is adding to the feeling, that we all have, that all is doom and gloom.
We need to remember that there WILL be an end to it at some point. If nothing else, there will be "lighter" days (in more ways than one) and easier times eventually. Just imagine how much more we will enjoy everyday life when that happens.
I read your posts on here and can see how hard it has been for you, but hold on and try and find things to take pleasure in....maybe something you overlooked when life was "normal." Even if it's just a walk everyday in the fresh air, seeing nature and taking some time away from the media etc.
Take photos when you go out, get a photo album and put them in. Chronicle your journey through all this, but in a positive way.
I know it probably all sounds crap but it did actually work for me when I suffered similarly 20 years back. Meds helped too..just used them to get me over the blip and they did. Came off them after.

..

Great post, and I think it applies to us all. Being stuck close to home for much of this year, we've found places a few miles away, that we'd never visited before, lovely places too, we've lived here nearly 30 years, and not been to these places, and they are on our doorstep, yet we've never bothered about spending thousands to go on holidays.

We've just had a week in The Mendips in Somerset, our first completed break this year, having lost 3 holidays, the weather wasn't exactly wonderful (understatement - there were floods for the first 2 days), but you know what we got out every day and did something, and had a lovely time, walked in the hills, by the beach, in our national arboretum at Weston Birt (really recommend this place).

You have to find a way to enjoy whatever you can, and try and put all your worries away for a few hours.

 

[Cityfan]

Yeah that's my point. Original poster was trying to say the excess were all covid deaths when everyone knows that there have been a lot of deaths caused as a result of lockdown and the NHS not being funny operational. Realistically there are probably even more as we all know that not all deaths with covid on the death certificate were as a result of covid, but 7k is the lowest figure.

I was not saying they were all Covid deaths, we quite simply don't know.
We do know that a significant number of people with Covid die suddenly with strokes & heart attacks, it is highly likely that a significant number of people with Covid died and didn't have it diagnosed.
It is also known that some people didn't come to hospital because of worries about Covid, some may have died as a result , but it wasn't due to ''lockdown' the hospitals remained open.
It is likely again that in the future people will die because of delays to treatment and diagnosis but this was because of hospitals having to deal with Covid not lockdown.

 

[andyhinch]

Wasn't meant to be.

I honestly don’t know how it read that way ? I pulled him up but no response

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I was not saying they were all Covid deaths, we quite simply don't know.
We do know that a significant number of people with Covid die suddenly with strokes & heart attacks, it is highly likely that a significant number of people with Covid died and didn't have it diagnosed.
It is also known that some people didn't come to hospital because of worries about Covid, some may have died as a result , but it wasn't due to ''lockdown' the hospitals remained open.
It is likely again that in the future people will die because of delays to treatment and diagnosis but this was because of hospitals having to deal with Covid not lockdown.

ONS analysis of the non covid deaths.

Analysis of death registrations not involving coronavirus (COVID-19), England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Trends in non-COVID-19 deaths, how they compare with the five-year average, and how the nature of deaths may have changed from previous years.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[worsleyweb]

Why would anyone think it fair to close down pubs in places like Ipswich and Cornwall?

attacking it locally is totally the correct thing.

 

[andyhinch]

Why would anyone think it fair to close down pubs in places like Ipswich and Cornwall?

attacking it locally is totally the correct thing.

Because people travel out of the lockdown area with restrictions ?

 

[cleavers]

Why would anyone think it fair to close down pubs in places like Ipswich and Cornwall?

attacking it locally is totally the correct thing.

I broadly agree about doing it locally.

I'd avoid going into Manchester on Saturday, as it's likely to be full of scousers watching their derby on TV in your pubs.

 

[worsleyweb]

Because people travel out of the lockdown area with restrictions ?

fuck going to Ipswich for a pint!

 

[andyhinch]

I broadly agree about doing it locally.

I'd avoid going into Manchester on Saturday, as it's likely to be full of scousers watching their derby on TV in your pubs.

I’m going to Chester but I’ll be avoiding pubs

 

[andyhinch]

fuck going to Ipswich for a pint!

It can’t take as long as fucking Newport

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Why would anyone think it fair to close down pubs in places like Ipswich and Cornwall?

attacking it locally is totally the correct thing.

It's rising everywhere. So either more measures are needed everywhere, or everywhere will end up where Liverpool is.

I'm not saying it ought to be the same everywhere, but it's very clear we're not doing enough *anywhere*. And the sooner we act, the sooner we'll get numbers going in the right direction, and the less restrictions will be needed in the end.

 

[True_Blue69]

And, yet again, rather than your uninformed speculation, you'll be able to provide a reputable source backing this up.

Read the links, it says 7k addition deaths that Covid was not mentioned.

 

[True_Blue69]

Other than the "slew of studies" referred to in the nature article I referenced, that is...

You just find the most negative article you can and go with that, that’s fine some people thrive on doom and gloom. The reality is it’s not 1%, it can’t be from what we know.

 

[Cityfan]

Read the links, it says 7k addition deaths that Covid was not mentioned.

The trouble is that in the early phases little testing was done people were told to stay at home and some were almost certainly dying of Covid without people knowing.

 

[mackenzie]

I honestly don’t know how it read that way ? I pulled him up but no response

It's fine, honest. Thanks anyway.

 

[Cityfan]

You just find the most negative article you can and go with that, that’s fine some people thrive on doom and gloom. The reality is it’s not 1%, it can’t be from what we know.

If it can't be 1% why did you post a link to a paper that gave an estimate for between 0.67 & 2.3%
We don't know what it is, the IFR will vary a lot from country to country depending on age demographics and health. But 1% is a perfectly reasonable estimate for the first wave in the UK.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Having my nightly read on vaccines and I1 in phase 3 trials. We will get one early next year and a way out of this.

I thought we were another year away?