COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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True_Blue69 said:
Unless they had a good idea that it was close I don't think they would be putting these restrictions in.
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They don't know, and can't know.

These trials are (1) Event driven and (2) Blinded.

(1) means there is no exact timescale - you need a certain number of events (infections) and that depends on prevalence of the virus in the vaccinated population, which can't be known in advance.

(2) Means that nobody (literally nobody) knows how successful the trial is until the end. There's no running tally kept - it's strictly forbidden. Only when a prescribed number of events are reached is the trial unblinded and the results known.

Anything before unblinding is pure speculation, and there is no reason to speculate one way or the other any more now than there was at the start of the trial.
 
The Blue said:
www.economist.com

Britain prepares to roll out a covid-19 vaccine

Woking Leisure Centre is in for a busy year
www.economist.com www.economist.com

Interesting article from last week by the economist. Looks to be quite positive for a vaccine in the next couple of months.
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Are we going to see some kind of enforcement of these vaccines?

Trying to not let the anti vaxxers (and yet some are just very suspicious rather than ‘anti vaxx) wind me up but I know lots that won’t take it for reasons beginning with ‘unproven’ to them putting ‘things’ into the global population.
 
somapop said:
Are we going to see some kind of enforcement of these vaccines?

Trying to not let the anti vaxxers (and yet some are just very suspicious rather than ‘anti vaxx) wind me up but I know lots that won’t take it for reasons beginning with ‘unproven’ to them putting ‘things’ into the global population.
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Hopefully not. Not everyone needs it to create herd immunity and force vaccination will only add to the anti vaxx movement. If people don't want it they shouldn't be forced to. I won't be getting my 5 year old daughter vaccinated that's for sure. The risk of the vaccine is much greater than the virus for a 5 year old.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
They don't know, and can't know.

These trials are (1) Event driven and (2) Blinded.

(1) means there is no exact timescale - you need a certain number of events (infections) and that depends on prevalence of the virus in the vaccinated population, which can't be known in advance.

(2) Means that nobody (literally nobody) knows how successful the trial is until the end. There's no running tally kept - it's strictly forbidden. Only when a prescribed number of events are reached is the trial unblinded and the results known.

Anything before unblinding is pure speculation, and there is no reason to speculate one way or the other any more now than there was at the start of the trial.
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To be fair if they were estimating the odds of an outcome by the end of the year. They may be estimating the odds of reaching the prescribed number of events , multiplying them by an estimate of what they consider the likelihood of a positive outcome based on previous vaccines plus the phase 1/2 trials, and then multiplying that by the odds that the paper work can actually be completed including all the data checks around adverse events.etc.
Personally I think the odds are likely to be less than 50:50 but wouldn't like to hazard a guess as to what they are.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
There's no new data, there's no reason whatever to be more or less optimistic than a week ago. I wouldn't argue with 50:50, but there's nothing new in there on vaccine success.

Hopefully (though don't hold your breath given the utter shitshow this govt is) there is a huge planning exercise for logistics to vaccinate the whole population as soon as practicable on the assumption the trial(s) read positive.
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Ah, this could be the truth drug.
 
somapop said:
Are we going to see some kind of enforcement of these vaccines?

Trying to not let the anti vaxxers (and yet some are just very suspicious rather than ‘anti vaxx) wind me up but I know lots that won’t take it for reasons beginning with ‘unproven’ to them putting ‘things’ into the global population.
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How to enforce it, or at least ensure sufficient take-up, will be one big fcuk off vexed question.

Going by the timid policy on face protection, I can’t see the government taking a hard line. But will that be enough for effective implementation?
 
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True_Blue69 said:
Hopefully not. Not everyone needs it to create herd immunity and force vaccination will only add to the anti vaxx movement. If people don't want it they shouldn't be forced to. I won't be getting my 5 year old daughter vaccinated that's for sure. The risk of the vaccine is much greater than the virus for a 5 year old.
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I feel much the same, no chance I'm allowing my 2 year old Son to have it, the risks of an unproven vaccine are much greater than Covid19 for his age group.

I'm certainly no anti-vaxxer either, he's had the rest of his jabs that have proven over a long time, are perfectly safe for the majority of kids.

I'm torn whether I would have it, at 30 it sounds great but if in 20 years I'm told that it is the reason I'm on my hypothetical death bed I'd be pretty annoyed at myself!
 
SiMCFC said:
I feel much the same, no chance I'm allowing my 2 year old Son to have it, the risks of an unproven vaccine are much greater than Covid19 for his age group.

I'm certainly no anti-vaxxer either, he's had the rest of his jabs that have proven over a long time, are perfectly safe for the majority of kids.

I'm torn whether I would have it, at 30 it sounds great but if in 20 years I'm told that it is the reason I'm on my hypothetical death bed I'd be pretty annoyed at myself!
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That's my take on it. I'm definitely not anti-vax, but I would be concerned at potential long term side effects of a vaccine. I completely understand people who will have it as soon as it is available. It's personal choice and we just have to use our own judgement. Undoubtedly a vaccine is a hugely positive thing, but I feel concerns are also valid.
 
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Churchlawtonblue said:
very good point, Although i would add my daughter still caught it after taking it very seriously and being very cautious. so it is very contagious.
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Yeah, sadly even many of those who are careful will catch the disease.

However, chances of this would be much less if others weren't such selfish arseholes.
 
squirtyflower said:
Councils appoint them, but you knew that, just you’re 1000 times a day moan about the government.
Are you enjoying the irony of the Labour controlled councils/mayors asking for more money rather than protecting lives whilst the leader of the opposition is calling for a full lock down.

Seems such a shame that the morals of Labour have become so base they would rather use COVID for political gain than helping the population through this mess.
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Its a shame Johnsons fans don't acknowledge that he made the announcement and has failed to provide the funding to councils - he and you are playing politics with Covid mate
 
True_Blue69 said:
Hopefully not. Not everyone needs it to create herd immunity and force vaccination will only add to the anti vaxx movement. If people don't want it they shouldn't be forced to. I won't be getting my 5 year old daughter vaccinated that's for sure. The risk of the vaccine is much greater than the virus for a 5 year old.
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Given the likely tiny fatality rate in the under 65's it should be encouraged in all people over that age, anyone considered vulnerable and 'key workers', if they want it, first and then anyone else who wants it further down the line.
 
Indaparkside said:
It’s only taken 7 months
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Better than most other countries who still aren't there after 7 months then.

I am all for knocking the government when they fuck up, but not just knocking them for giggles. The truth is from a very poor start, we got our act together rather better than pretty much everyone else:

Screenshot-2020-10-16-103337.png
 
True_Blue69 said:
Hopefully not. Not everyone needs it to create herd immunity and force vaccination will only add to the anti vaxx movement. If people don't want it they shouldn't be forced to. I won't be getting my 5 year old daughter vaccinated that's for sure. The risk of the vaccine is much greater than the virus for a 5 year old.
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the risk to children from this virus is tiny. but adults who refuse the vaccine should be made to sign a form declaring they have sufficient health care insurance should they get covid. I dont see why i as a tax payer should be paying for healthcare for someone who could have avoided catching this virus just because they hadsome way out views and didnt want the vaccine. So not compulsory but you pay for your helthcare if you catch it. Might make people a little less selfish.
 
Bellamy's Caddy said:
That's my take on it. I'm definitely not anti-vax, but I would be concerned at potential long term side effects of a vaccine rushed forward in this way. I completely understand people who will have it as soon as it is available. It's personal choice and we just have to use our own judgement. Undoubtedly a vaccine is a hugely positive thing, but I feel concerns are also valid.
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Full phase three trials including safety are being run for these vaccines
 
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