COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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cleavers said:
Lockdown officially started on March 16th (600 new cases), but it was a week later on the 23rd that the PM told everyone to stay at home, when there were around 2000 new cases. It was over 2 weeks before new cases flattened at around 4500, and around May 1st before numbers started to properly decline.
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There was a huge decline when the Government suddenly knocked thousands off the data. In the early days I kept a spread sheet but gave up when the daily figures added to the previous cumulative kept disagreeing with the Gov.Uk web site. I wouldn’t trust those in power to get anything right.
 
Scotland data. Bad again.

9 deaths

1196 cases

416 Greater Glasgow, 309 Lanarkshire, `161 Lothian. Only Shetland had no new cases.

16.9% positive.

629 in hospital (up 28 in day)

58 on ventilators (up 7 in day)
 
artfuldodger said:
So why is the mayor moaning about it? Was it not his call?

Mayor Joe Anderson questions Lancashire gyms disparity​

Liverpool Mayor Joe Anderson said the Liverpool City Region has demanded immediate clarification on why Lancashire gyms are allowed to stay open and Liverpools close.

He describes the "inconsistent mess we now have Tier 3 A and Tier 3 B."

Are gym users in Lancashire more safer than those in Liverpool Region?

He calls it a Covid-19 shambles.
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If it was up to local authorities to decide on gyms then why is Anderson moaning at the government? He might want to look closer to home as to why Merseyside is in such a mess in terms of infection rate
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Not intended through gritted teeth at all, merely that it's a very flawed way to do what is a useful comparison.

Here's the data as a proportion of the population. If you regard the data as a simple league table (I don't have the insight to know if this is sensible) then we're second, behind Denmark, close to France

ourworldindata.org

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org
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It wasn't useless comparison at all.

We're ahead (well ahead actually) of France, Italy and Germany both in absolute terms and also in per capita terms. Which is an impressive result considering we started miles behind them.

Still if knocking them makes you happy, carry on by all means.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Back in March/April new cases flattened then slowly cane down. This time its not even flattened and that's with face masks that eliminate 70% of transmission in shops and enclosed spaces. R is still around 1.4
We're fucked.
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Infections are coming down in Manchester, most areas of GM, flattening in Nottingham and slowing right down in Liverpool. Not only that, but the risk of death from this virus is massively smaller than it was in April and, breaking news, critical care beds are almost always full of old, co-morbid patients with respiratory infections, in October, November, December and January.

Finally, lets imagine we have a 'circuit breaker' for 2 weeks and infections significanly reduce in most areas. Do you keep your circuit breaker in for 3/4/5/6/7/8 weeks in the areas that don't reduce? When infections start to rise in December/January do you have another one? Even with a vaccine, this virus ain't going away anytime soon, so what next?
 
Scotland 2 wks ago v last week v this week

deaths 4 / 6 / 9

cases 775 / 1246 / 1196

% positive 12.6 / 16.2 / 16.9

Patients 275 / 397 / 629

Ventilators 19 / 33/ 58
 
Chippy_boy said:
It wasn't useless comparison at all.

We're ahead (well ahead actually) of France, Italy and Germany both in absolute terms and also in per capita terms. Which is an impressive result considering we started miles behind them.

Still if knocking them makes you happy, carry on by all means.
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How was my post knocking anybody?

I simply gave the facts without any comment whatsoever.

Mystifying.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Not only that, but the risk of death from this virus is massively smaller than it was in April
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What are you basing that claim on? The consensus amongst the vast majority (all?) the experts is that the virus is not becoming less deadly, merely that so far, most of the infections are in a group of people less likely to die.

i.e. for any given person, the risk of death is not much smaller at all. Perhaps marginally smaller due to better treatments, like 20% better chance perhaps. Not "massively smaller".
 
Chippy_boy said:
It wasn't useless comparison at all.

We're ahead (well ahead actually) of France, Italy and Germany both in absolute terms and also in per capita terms. Which is an impressive result considering we started miles behind them.

Still if knocking them makes you happy, carry on by all means.
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The German strategy is to target testing and tracing mainly in areas with clusters. They trace most of those infected and protect the vunerable. It has been a success so far.
The UK has a mindless random strategy of testing hundreds of thousands and not tracing their contacts. It is pointless doing all these tests and not following it up. The only statistic that matters is hospitalisations and deaths. There is nothing impressive about our Government's response. It has been pitiful.
 
bobbyowenquiff said:
The German strategy is to target testing and tracing mainly in areas with clusters. They trace most of those infected and protect the vunerable. It has been a success so far.
The UK has a mindless random strategy of testing hundreds of thousands and not tracing their contacts. It is pointless doing all these tests and not following it up. The only statistic that matters is hospitalisations and deaths. There is nothing impressive about our Government's response. It has been pitiful.
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OT

The criticism was made about our testing capacity. End of. It was not a debate about our handling of the crisis, which I agree has been shocking.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
This is pretty funny. There are many vaccines under development. They *all* have very similar trials to judge safety and efficacy.

Let's assume the "Oxford" vaccine - first in the queue is successful and rolled out. You're not taking that one. Too risky.

Next up is Moderna. Let's assume that's successful too.

So, you're now going to take the Moderna vaccine. Even though it has the same safety studies as Oxford, but definitely safer, right?

Now, what if I tell you that the Moderna vaccine is an entirely new concept, never before commercialised. You still think it's safer?
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You clearly didn't get the point I was making.
I'll take the the next Covid-19 vaccine that is designed to cope with expected new mutations (as per flu). There is absolutely no point in taking the vaccine that covers current Italian/Spanish variants of SARS2 descended from the Singapore variant.
1. I still have antibodies.
2. My immune system is primed to fight the virus genus.
3. My immune system is primed to fight current Italian/Spanish genetic versions of the virus. The evidence is that if you catch a similar genetic variant again you barely get ill (if at all).
4. Its a new vaccine. Information on testing on people who have already had the virus is currently unavailable.
5. There are lots of other, more needy, people in the vaccine queue before me.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
Could be absolutely miles off with this, and don't want to be seen as peddling utter bullshit, but interesting to see the figures from London and New York which both had an awful first wave. Could the herd immunity threshold be much lower than the 65% or so anticipated or could the seroprevalence rate be much higher than the 10% or so estimated? As I say, only speculating and could be miles off.
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I have posted a few times over the past 3 or 4 months about the parallels with New York in here and advising we watch that trend closely. I saw this months ago as potentially significant and the way the wave hit New York and the UK early was the same.

It is not responding like other US states now either and mirrored the UK quite well over the Summer. I poisted figures showing that from time in here over the Summer if you look back.

Others have said in here it is not really as close as it seems but I do think that New York and the UK share a kind of pattern of urban compactness that are not obvious in other US states (even big cities like LA are far more spread out than New York is constrained by being island based like the UK).

How much it is a factor of herd immunity is another argument but thetre are parallels that look instructive.
 
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bobbyowenquiff said:
The German strategy is to target testing and tracing mainly in areas with clusters. They trace most of those infected and protect the vunerable. It has been a success so far.
The UK has a mindless random strategy of testing hundreds of thousands and not tracing their contacts. It is pointless doing all these tests and not following it up. The only statistic that matters is hospitalisations and deaths. There is nothing impressive about our Government's response. It has been pitiful.
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As I posted yesterday, Germany (amongst a number of other European countries) had their highest new cases in the pandemic yesterday, well below our worst, but near double a week ago, and roughly where we were about 18 days ago.
 
Thank you for the Iriah data Jim.

This really is a global problem with similar patterns pretty much all across northern Europe right now.
 
There is absolutely no need for a circuit breaker in the South West, South, South East (expect near SW London) or East (excluding Essex). The Tier 1 restrictions should be good enough to prevent escalation.
No reason for a lockdown at all
 
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Cityfan said:
ONS survey is reporting rising levels as well.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, Public Health England and Wellcome Trust.
www.ons.gov.uk
Bit depressing
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It is not a surprise though. Covid was certain to see an escalation over the colder months. We got lucky it arriving here as last Winter ended. How wisely we used that edge is another matter. But now we are at the other end of the luck spectrum as the next six months could show.

Though at least in the Spring and Summer we have learned enough to save thousands of lives that would not be true if we were still at the start of the learning curve.
 
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