COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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artfuldodger said:
I agree with that. He’s already made too many promises that didn’t come to fruition. A promised vaccine that didn’t materialise would be the final straw.
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he doesn’t need to promise anything.

just fucking update the nation on where we actually are and what we hope and are planning. Rather than let the Sunday papers and social media update the public.

leadership And comms has been dreadful .
 
Len Rum said:
JVT and the Prof from the Wellcome foundation were also making positive noises about a vaccine - which is good news because they are serious punters.
My conclusion is that they must have some insider knowledge that the phase 3 trials are going well for at least one of the11 vaccines currently undergoing evaluation at this stage. If not then they are just guessing or being optimistic that at least one succesfull vaccine will emerge.
You stated that the AZ/Oxford vaccine is ready to go.
Serious question - how do you know this or are you just making the same assumptions as I am?
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New laws about vaccines came into force last Friday.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-measures-to-support-roll-out-of-vaccines-in-the-uk
 
Len Rum said:
JVT and the Prof from the Wellcome foundation were also making positive noises about a vaccine - which is good news because they are serious punters.
My conclusion is that they must have some insider knowledge that the phase 3 trials are going well for at least one of the11 vaccines currently undergoing evaluation at this stage. If not then they are just guessing or being optimistic that at least one succesfull vaccine will emerge.
You stated that the AZ/Oxford vaccine is ready to go.
Serious question - how do you know this or are you just making the same assumptions as I am?
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I started the Novavax trial 2 weeks. At the briefing at the beginning, we were told this trial will last 12 to 13 months, but that they fully expect another vaccine to be available around about March. And then discussed our options if that were to be the case.
 
Healdplace said:
Here is my update on the rolling total of England deaths that I do every few days.

The numbers are for the 5 day total (during which most deaths are accumulated) per day across the week shown - with the average deaths per day this gives. And in the second number set beside it the same with cases added on beyond the five day cut off point for deaths as they stand for that date right up to today

Wk 17 - 23 Sep deaths 138 (19.7 per day) //// After add ons 153 (21.9)

Wk 24 - 30 Sep deaths 207 (29.6 per day) //// After add ons 220 (31.4)

Wk 1 - 7 Sep deaths 281 (40.1 per day) //// After add ons 302 (43.1)

Wk 8 - 14 Sep deaths 407 (58.1 per day) //// After add ons 433 (61.9)

The rise week to week was 50% in first week to second , about 36 % second to third week. And has risen again to 45% or so by the past week.

So not sure anything can really be concluded about the trend in the rise in numbers here as yet.
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7-day average of the like-for-like 5-day reporting totals now up to 58.4 compared to 644 at the peak.

A2E3F058-1B4C-474F-BF1F-1DDDCA63CA20.png
 
So the UK hospital deaths today is 84 - it was 47 last Monday. All settings later mde that 50.

It is actually now 117 for 11 October, those who actually died in all settings on the day the above 50 referred to a week ago. A huge under estimate.
 
Healdplace said:
Finally Northern Ireland data, which is sadly not good again.

6 deaths v 3 last wk v 0 wk before


820 Cases v 877 last wk v 616 wk before - which is a pretty good trend thankfully.

The 7 day total fell slightly to 7056 with the numbers in age ranges

1100 (0 - 19), 2802 (20 - 39), 2071 (40 - 59), 861 (60 - 79) and 222 over 70. That high number is why deaths are rising.

Hospital patients up 33 in day to 261 v 140 last wk v 64 wk before

On ventilators 25 - up 2 in day v 15 last wk and 8 the wk before.
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It wouldn't say 820 from877 in a week is a trend unless it consistently falls week on week
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
The comms of the govt have been atrocious.

At the weekend were vids and stories of the vaccines being prepared and ready.
assuming This is the case don’t you think the PM would be addressing the nation (either way confirm or deny) . But let’s assume the positive

you think he would be addressing the nation saying we need us

all to follow the new tier rules for one last time and compliance please from all.
together with an update and timeline for the roll out of vaccines To give hope.

in the meantime the public are just left to hope, believe what they want to believe or have no fucking clue.

even if it’s bollox and the vaccines aren’t ready for roll out he should be communicating with us clearly That position .
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I totally agree on that.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
7-day average of the like-for-like 5-day reporting totals now up to 58.4 compared to 644 at the peak.

View attachment 4107
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Yes, happily whatever goes right or wrong it is looking all but sure we will not even get halfway to the numbers who died at the peak of the first wave.

That in of itself is probably the best news that people need to know right now. But it will not be emphasised because we cannot be sure and getting people to relax would likely exacerbate what deaths we do get.
 
Len Rum said:
they must have some insider knowledge that the phase 3 trials are going well
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Phase 3 trials are blinded.

*Nobody* knows how well they are going, not even those running the trial, in terms of efficacy.

The only indication could be patient recruitment numbers, but that only tells you if they're progressing, not if they're working.
 
Total three nation cases today (without England) are 2439 versus 2325 a week ago - which is not a big increase over a week. Cautious grounds for optimism as we escalated into the 1000s, 2000s and 3000s for the three nations but seem to have slowed quite a bit and 4000s are not turning up and even 3000s now are becoming quite rare.
 
More evidence of the collateral health damage that has occurred through this epidemic is emerging all the time.

  • In England, the number of deaths in private homes registered between 28 December 2019 and 11 September 2020 was 108,842; this was 25,472 deaths more than the five-year average for the same period, although almost ALL have occurred since March 27th.

  • Excess deaths in private homes in England and Wales were mostly deaths NOT involving the coronavirus (COVID-19).
  • Leading causes, for men, were:
  • Ischaemic Heart Disease
  • Malignant neoplasms of trachea, bronchus and lung
  • Malignant neoplasm of the prostate
  • Chronic respiratory disease
  • Malignant neoplasms of the colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus.

  • For Women
  • Ischaemic heart disease
  • Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease
  • Malignant neoplasms of trachea, bronchus and lung
  • Malignant neoplasm of the breast
  • Chronic respiratory disease
Lots more information here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...registeredfrom28december2019to11september2020
 
03 March 2002 said:
I work for AZ.

Not trying to be a WUM, I've 'lurked' here for many years without signing up but I felt compelled to make an account recently. Believe me or not, I'm trying to share what I can to ease peoples' minds - I appreciate the low post count/new account will draw scepticism. If I can answer anything without jeopardising my own position I'll try to, but this is massively under NDA and as a result I won't be putting myself at risk. This is taken extremely seriously from top to bottom.
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Could you shed light on why the United States has still not allowed its tranche of the Phase III trial to recommence (political?), and why AZ was so disproportionately reliant on the US for participants anyway?
 
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