COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Blue Maverick]

PM doesn't work for AZ, although I'm sure he's being kept abreast of progress (as will all world leaders) he isn't a mouthpiece for the company and most importantly he's not going to favour one vaccine over another.

I completely understand the wider public frustration with what's being perceived as a slow process but we're really doing something unprecedented here. Typically pharmaceutical (/biological) drug development from inception to market is a 10-20 year process and approx. 15B in associated costs.

This one has been funded at cost value by Mr. Trump's chequebook via the aptly named 'Operation Warp Speed'.

Let’s hope they keep it under wraps before November 3rd then otherwise that loon will get voted back in

 

[Bluesince1979]

Can you never counter the points made and not this childish stuff, you dontfacts or being realistic , i get it

Can you never counter the points made and not this childish stuff, you dontfacts or being realistic , i get it

Its bugger all to do with that. Where as you thrive on the misery of all this i actually thrive on any positive.
I social distance, i mask up when required, i sanitise my hands repeatedly, im not in denial with all this shit but if its ok with you ill just hit on the good news, the positive bits and sometimes try and forget its all going on rather than flood my brain with negative shit.

 

[kaz7]

it’s ridiculous that the clearest statement of the position is found on bluemoon.

whats so hard about the pm saying the same thing to the nation? Goons

I posted the head of the wellcome trust yesterday , the vaccine experts , you are not reading it ? You believe him not a poster on bluemoon

 

[BlueAnorak]

I see Burnham is now demanding £14m for a shielding programme.
They don't work, and won't work no matter how much you spend on them. The virus will always get in. Care workers, delivery drivers etc etc. The more virus in the community the bigger the chance it has of getting in to infect the vulnerable.
You stand a chance of isolating the infected but not of isolating the vulnerable.

Not the we can do the latter either as Quarantine is a dogs breakfast.

 

[Nellies left peg]

It’s a nice change from someone calling me a **** tbh :-)

I've noticed you are in with a bad bunch on here. They will ultimately drag you down to their level :-)

 

[roubaixtuesday]

More evidence of the collateral health damage that has occurred through this epidemic is emerging all the time.

• In England, the number of deaths in private homes registered between 28 December 2019 and 11 September 2020 was 108,842; this was 25,472 deaths more than the five-year average for the same period, although almost ALL have occurred since March 27th.
  
  
• Excess deaths in private homes in England and Wales were mostly deaths NOT involving the coronavirus (COVID-19).
• Leading causes, for men, were:
• Ischaemic Heart Disease
• Malignant neoplasms of trachea, bronchus and lung
• Malignant neoplasm of the prostate
• Chronic respiratory disease
• Malignant neoplasms of the colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus.
  
  
• For Women
• Ischaemic heart disease
• Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease
• Malignant neoplasms of trachea, bronchus and lung
• Malignant neoplasm of the breast
• Chronic respiratory disease

Lots more information here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...registeredfrom28december2019to11september2020

This does not seem to be seen as evidence of collateral damage by experts

Sir David Spiegelhalter, chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that most of these deaths were ones that in normal circumstances would have occurred in hospital. He said:

Non-Covid deaths in hospital have correspondingly declined, suggesting most of these deaths would normally have occurred in hospital, and people have either been reluctant to go, discouraged from attending, or the services have been disrupted.

He added that it is “unclear how many of these lives could have been extended had they gone to hospital”.

Quotes from the Graun

 

[BlueAnorak]

Or we might be filled with people on zero hours contracts who can’t actually pay the rent or put food on the table if they're off work? There are undoubtedly employers who insist people go in and there will be some who just don’t understand what’s expected.
The question is, what are the government going to do about it? Fining people £10k who haven’t got a pot to piss in isn’t a great idea, finding ways to keep people in, might work better.
Passing tracing details on to the police will just make people not go for a test and that seems a bit pointless. Mind you, if less go for a test, there will be less positives and they can claim their tier system is working. As cases look to be consistently falling in Manchester they’re desperate to do something before admissions and deaths follow at the start of November......

I agree with you about zero hours contracts. Something has to be done about that.
However to condone failure to quarantine is simply saying max virus infections please.

 

[03 March 2002]

Could you shed light on why the United States has still not allowed its tranche of the Phase III trial to recommence (political?), and why AZ was so disproportionately reliant on the US for participants anyway?

Sorry I don't have the answer to the first question. I suspect it's political though.

Regarding the second question, as I understand it, it simply makes the most sense. They are a developed country with a large and diverse population as well as access to the correct setting to carry this out, access to means of communication for patients and study directors, access to medicines should something happen etc.
Typically you'd want patients with the indication for p3 in order to prove that the medicine you are testing is better than the current alternative. Given we don't have an alternative, having access to things such as the antibody titres people naturally generate vs. the antibody titres generated by the vaccine. COVID is clearly running rampant over there. There's an element of future proofing your regulatory submission at play I would also suggest. The FDA are thorough and competent. If you can compile a dossier which meets their requirements and generate data which meets their requirements you can be quite sure the rest of the world will be possible too.

 

[BlueAnorak]

It would be interesting to consider how likely you are to kill or seriously injure someone when driving whilst marginally over the drink-drive limit. Vs how likely you are to do the same whilst wandering around in public whilst infected with coronavirus.

They throw the book at you for the first offence, and yet barely seem to give a toss for the latter one.

It is EXACTLY EQUIVALENT to drinking and driving.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Number of hospital beds UK 2023| Statista

How many hospital beds are in the UK? The number of hospital beds in the U.S. hit an all time low in 2020 and has increased slightly in the years since.

www.statista.com

Pretty big fall of 75k hospital beds the past 20years. We are probably paying the price for this policy now.

More ICU beds than in 2010. Not enough mind

 

[kaz7]

Its bugger all to do with that. Where as you thrive on the misery of all this i actually thrive on any positive.
I social distance, i mask up when required, i sanitise my hands repeatedly, im not in denial with all this shit but if its ok with you ill just hit on the good news, the positive bits and sometimes try and forget its all going on rather than flood my brain with negative shit.

I thrive on proper data and not latch onto every loon telling lies to cheer people up , i have worked in health and big pharma for so long that i deal in science and scientific evidence and not false hope , i think what i post is beyond you

 

[BlueAnorak]

If the hospital data is the driving factor there is no question thw NW is rising the fastest. A 46% increase over the past 7 days in patient numbers. Most other areas in the past week have only risen around 33% in that week.

If it is people on ventilators that are the concern - being the most likely to have restricted capacity and also to die -you can frame it differently As in that week the NW has only risen by 29 to 161 - so in effect about a 22% rise. Wheras London has gone from 57 to 86 - which is over a 50% rise. So which has the biggest crisis?

And if you look at the situation in the South West - Devon and Cornwall - the area Boris singled out as being so low in numbers that it would be unfair to have a national circuit breaker penalising them - their ventilated Covid patients have risen in the same 7 days from 8 to 21 - a rise of over 150%. Patients also went up from 94 to 161 in this area - the biggest increase week to week in the UK in percentage term of nearly 70%.

I am not suggesting this proves that the SW should be locked down and the NW should not.Of course not. As the actual numbers are small and distorting the perception and local capacity are the big issues that determine meaning and consequent action.

All I am saying is that numbers can be used to tell you what the person using them wants you to believe. And you may well not realise that is happening. Indeed often the journalist or the politician doing it has no idea they are doing it either.

They only use Ventilators for the most serious cases now. Indeed putting a frail person on a ventilator pretty much kills them. PAP and CPAP are the main tools of choice in this epidemic
(Source: My daughter who is a Registrar.)

 

[Chippy_boy]

It is EXACTLY EQUIVALENT to drinking and driving.

That's my feeling.

And yet the police's general response to various occurrences of COVID rule-breaking, has been to pop round and gently remind, have a word, explain. All that sort of shite.

Can you imagine being stopped by the cops whilst driving home from the pub after 4 pints and the officer just "having a word" and reminding you of the rules before letting you drive off?

It beggars belief we are not throwing the book at people IMO. Yet again yesterday I saw a bloke and his Mrs swanning around DFS with no mask on and the staff didn't say a bloody thing.

 

[JamesMCFC]

If they lock Manchester down, I really hope they keep the gyms open like in Lancashire.

I'm sure I don't speak for myself but the gym is a place where I can just unwind and not think about this shitshow.

 

[Healdplace]

80 all settings deaths.

18,804 cases - 1822 up on yesterday.

From 280, 884 pillar 1 & 2 tests - about 4300 up on yesterday.

 

[FantasyIreland]

If they lock Manchester down, I really hope they keep the gyms open like in Lancashire.

I'm sure I don't speak for myself but the gym is a place where I can just unwind and not think about this shitshow.

There are thousands who are in the same boat,for some,it's life affecting.

I'm very lucky that i have my own gym at home,but,during the lockdown,i would without doubt have lost the plot without it.

We don't need that again,as i've previously said (and while those who do not train or need the escape will wonder what the fuss is about) closing gyms,especially independants,will cause far more harm than good.

 

[BlueAnorak]

At least in about a months time we will know who got the argument over circuit break nationwide v local lockdowns right. When we see what happens in N Ireland and Wales.

Trouble is if England has called this wrong by then it may mean not a two/three week circuit break but one across much of the Winter given how much harder it will be to stop a runaway train in England than in two comparatively small nations. And they will also likely say England being wide open made the impact in Wales reduced as people will be travelling across the border day to day.

Let's hope both are equally effective.

Shutting down the SW, S, SE, and E is complete and utter stupidity unless tier 1 restrictions have zero effect.

 

[shemnel]

This graph shows the positive cases per 100,000 people per Lower Tier Local Authority (33 of them in the NW 'region'). I have put them into 4 broad areas (sorry Cheshire is in with Gtr Manchester). It is a 7 day rolling window.

These are cases by date of sample, not date reported. They are data up to yesterday, with 4 further days knocked off due to (highly probable) incompleteness. The colour indicates the actual number of cases cumulative.



This next graph is the Rate Of Change of those curves above. Where the line is above 0, you are still getting increasing cases per 100,000 in a seven day window but if it is tending towards zero, that rate of change is falling (i.e. heading towards plateau). Where the line is below 0 you are getting declining number of cases compared to previous data. Flat lines are plateaued, around any number.

 

[The Northern Baptist]

More evidence of the collateral health damage that has occurred through this epidemic is emerging all the time.

• In England, the number of deaths in private homes registered between 28 December 2019 and 11 September 2020 was 108,842; this was 25,472 deaths more than the five-year average for the same period, although almost ALL have occurred since March 27th.
  
  
• Excess deaths in private homes in England and Wales were mostly deaths NOT involving the coronavirus (COVID-19).
• Leading causes, for men, were:
• Ischaemic Heart Disease
• Malignant neoplasms of trachea, bronchus and lung
• Malignant neoplasm of the prostate
• Chronic respiratory disease
• Malignant neoplasms of the colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus.
  
  
• For Women
• Ischaemic heart disease
• Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease
• Malignant neoplasms of trachea, bronchus and lung
• Malignant neoplasm of the breast
• Chronic respiratory disease

Lots more information here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...registeredfrom28december2019to11september2020

Get this fucking country open again, already

 

[Len Rum]

Phase 3 trials are blinded.

*Nobody* knows how well they are going, not even those running the trial, in terms of efficacy.

The only indication could be patient recruitment numbers, but that only tells you if they're progressing, not if they're working.

So how can the experts be confident about a vaccine being available soon?
Is it just an optimistic guess on the numbers of different vaccines being tested (142 with 11 at stage 3 trials) assuming statistically at least one will work?