COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

Catastrophic day for the North West and for Greater Manchester. Zero option now I am afraid. Todays numbers are the worst in two or three weeks. Six of the ten boroughs above 200 cases! Not sure that has ever happened. I suspect a few records will have gone and todays total is well up from yesterday and that was well up from the day before.

The cases have totally undercut any argument Andy Burnham has. GM has become the hotspot of the UK suddenly in the weekend this argument has gone on.

 

[Len Rum]

Shutting down the SW, S, SE, and E is complete and utter stupidity unless tier 1 restrictions have zero effect.

Unless as you say tier 1 is not enough, therefore infections might rise and you want to nip it in the bud.
By no means an expert, just trying to make sense of it.
After all this is what SAGE have recommended with their circuit breaker.

 

[artfuldodger]

Not sure how accurate, but the MEN are reporting no resolution between the Government and Greater Manchester.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

So how can the experts be confident about a vaccine being available soon?
Is it just an optimistic guess on the numbers of different vaccines being tested (142 with 11 at stage 3 trials) assuming statistically at least one will work?

I'm not sure exactly how confident different experts are, I get differing impressions from different people.

I think confidence is based more on the results of early trials than just numbers. Early trials for all of the vaccines now in phase 3 showed good activation of the immune response. The phase 3 trials read out based on actual efficacy - how much lower infections are on the vaccine. Just having an immune response doesn't guarantee you actually stop infections. And they also test safety.

The good thing about the large number of vaccines is that many of them are based on different principles - so if there's some odd reason why one doesn't work, or isn't safe, there's a good chance it won't apply across the board.

But there's an iron law of development - that until the data reads out, you don't know.

 

[grunge]

I was thinking about our track and trace system yesterday. and how its mostly pointless as we only test symptomatic cases. if everyone who got an alert got tested then we would be catching the asymptomatic cases too and would really be able to block the chain of infection.

the scenario I was thinking of.

Person A, gets the virus, they are infectious for 2-3 days before symptoms, then it takes 2/3 days or so for the test and positive to come back. thats 4/6 days window where they could have infected someone. they put there test into the app and everyone that they came in contact with gets the alert. they infected person B in this time.

Person B. was close to person A early on. they get there alert and do the right thing, they isolate. but at this time they have actually been infectious for 4 or so days and Manage to infect person C. But Person B never get symptoms so never gets a test so Person C goes about there business without having a clue they have been near an infected person.

if Person C is asymptomatic too then thats close to 2 weeks of them spreading it without a clue.

Until we fill that hole in the track and trace system then its like boxing with 1 arm tied behind out backs.

this isn't taking into consideration that loads of people just ignore it mind you, thats a whole other issue.

 

[richardtheref]

I didn't even know they did? Jesus, how can any government not see that we don't need to charge people who want to enter the profession and will give it back to the country ten-fold?

Disgusting.

My sons girlfriend was training to be a nurse but had to wrap in when both her parents lost their jobs at the end of last year. They were basically her sponsors. Another girl she worked with used to work at McDonalds from midnight to 7am so that she could pay tuition/accomodation fees

 

[Healdplace]

2330 cases in GM - up from 1842 yesterday and 1761 the day before And 1453 the day before that.

Thats a very startling rise over the weekend.

This is way back to where we were when Manchester had 1000 cases on a day on its own because of students. But that at least had a basis.

The highest number apart from then.

A large chunk of todays extra 2000 UK cases have been in GM.

Could not have happened at a worse moment for Andy Burnham as he really has no option now and he has to know this. We cannot just let this increase extrapolate from here.

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

The Northern Ireland data on 7090 cases over the past 7 days up to yesterday splits by age as follows.


1114 under 20

2812 20 - 39

2094 40 - 59

832 60 - 79

238 over 80.

These numbers in the over 60s have been creeping up and are baffling me as to why more is not being done now on the shielding of the most vulnerable. We seem to have almost just accepted that as inevitable.

Sir Richard Leese in GM this morning said instead of millions to prop up business we should keep them open and spend the money shielding the ones most likely to get sick this winter.

That is certainly an argument that needs to be had more visibly than we are right now.

If track and trace had been done properly that suggestion would have been a no-brainer. Imagine if the £12bn furlough money had been used to protect all nursing/care homes and ensure families of key workers were protected (paying for hotels etc etc) That said we can't go back and can only deal with the situation now.

 

[beehive_bob]

As far as I was aware, Burnham's stance has not been a dogmatic no to Tier 3 but that he wanted, firstly, the evidence that it was warranted, and secondly, more money to help soften the blow to livelihoods. Looks like the evidence is now there and hopefully the Government and the City Region can agree quickly on more funding - Lancashire ended up with £30m more than originally offered by the Government.

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

it’s ridiculous that the clearest statement of the position is found on bluemoon.

whats so hard about the pm saying the same thing to the nation? Goons

I have got most of my Covid info from this site, some medical journals, and Dr John Campbell's videos (which I also found on this site). The info has mostly been accurate, well-informed, and helpful. There are lots of people on Bluemoon who work in the NHS, local government, and other scientific areas. We have been ahead of the curve a lot of the time. Well done to everyone and especially Ric for providing this platform. Most of the national media coverage has been hysterical and biased (one way or the other)

 

[ell]

I just don't understand the argument for this tier 3, besides having to order food with your beers in the pub I have no idea how its drastically different from tier 2. And if anything people who meet up and will sit outside to try and stick to the rules will probably think fuck it we might aswell just sit inside now.

 

[worsleyweb]

AZ/Oxford vaccine is ready to go, currently scaled to 10s of millions doses. Last I knew >100m ready to go. Trials aren't finished though and you won't be seeing it until they are and the MHRA/FDA have had a look at the data/reg. submission.

People want safe vaccines, this is what it takes.

Highly expect it to get approval Q1/2 '21.

Thanks for posting that mate. Good news hopefully ahead.

 

[Blue Maverick]

Why when all NHS places of work and soon ours have to wear masks whilst in work all day no matter if social distancing those twats in parliament aren’t?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

This does not seem to be seen as evidence of collateral damage by experts

Sir David Spiegelhalter, chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that most of these deaths were ones that in normal circumstances would have occurred in hospital. He said:


He added that it is “unclear how many of these lives could have been extended had they gone to hospital”.

Quotes from the Graun

That may, or may not be true. Simple fact is, people who may have been saved had they gone to hospital, stayed at home and died.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Why when all NHS places of work and soon ours have to wear masks whilst in work all day no matter if social distancing those twats in parliament aren’t?

They’ve all had it........

 

[Bluesince1979]

I thrive on proper data and not latch onto every loon telling lies to cheer people up , i have worked in health and big pharma for so long that i deal in science and scientific evidence and not false hope , i think what i post is beyond you

Great stuff. I worry what you are going to do when this is all over. I think youve relished every second of the whole shit show.

meanwhile, whilst youre negging yourself out and half the forum ill just enjoy the positive news whilst getting on with life, family and earning a living.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

That may, or may not be true. Simple fact is, people who may have been saved had they gone to hospital, stayed at home and died.

I think you may be oversimplifying to get to your "simple fact".

What we do know is that the net change in deaths from other conditions is, as yet, so small as to be undetectable - we don't even know if there have been more fewer.

 

[kaz7]

Great stuff. I worry what you are going to do when this is all over. I think youve relished every second of the whole shit show.

meanwhile, whilst youre negging yourself out and half the forum ill just enjoy the positive news whilst getting on with life, family and earning a living.

Lol loved getting a deadly virus and long covid asthma , i am over joyed, not been this happy for years

As someone with a medical background a pandemic really interests me , sorry

Where is the oncologist dealing in hope and not facts now

 

[Chippy_boy]

If they lock Manchester down, I really hope they keep the gyms open like in Lancashire.

I'm sure I don't speak for myself but the gym is a place where I can just unwind and not think about this shitshow.

IMO hell on earth would be having to go to the gym.

 

[Cityfan]

So how can the experts be confident about a vaccine being available soon?
Is it just an optimistic guess on the numbers of different vaccines being tested (142 with 11 at stage 3 trials) assuming statistically at least one will work?

At the momnet they cannot know whether or not the vaccines will work, however they are predicitng that they will, what they can be fairly sure about is how close they are to getting the requisite number of cases to unblind the trial because of the second wave that is occurring., they can also be collecting information about the background rate of adverse events. If these seem normal and the trials are about to report they are hopeful that they will be postive and know it could be soon.
They might be wrong of course but with several trials being in phase 3 and the ongoing pandemic they should know soon.