The Title Race 2022/23

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Claytop said:
Big ask but win out from here I think is the only way we'll win it.
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There's no reason we can't, we've done it before.
In fact, the team seem to be firing up just at the right time.
As for Arsenal, they are playing very well and seem to be the real deal but odd things happen when the pressure is on.
The pisscan could tell you all about that.
 
Listened to an interview from Arsenals Edu he talked like pep and our staff talk about next game concentrating on just that and how you go about winning that next game no talk whatsoever on titles trophies.. it’s why I think we will need to win at least 10 of our last 11 games to win the league!
 
Stephen230 said:
I think we’re getting vey close, if not already at the point, where we need to be 100% from here on in, to have a realistic chance.

Of course it’s possible Arsenal could drop points in 3+ games. I think it’s unlikely though, especially with no distractions in other competitions.

We’ve done it before though, so I certainly haven’t given up. Absolutely got to beat Liverpool after the break though, or I think that might more or less be it, barring a miracle.
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We seem to play better when playing twice a week.
Never give up hope.
It's going to be a great run in whatever happens.
 
If Arsenal win every game except ours then they'd have won 14 of their last 15 games, including trips to Liverpool and Newcastle, and will end the season on 96 points. I remain of the opinion you can't really begrudge them the title on that form, and there's not a lot we can do about it. At the very least, I think there's a couple of draws in there and they'll finish closer to 90ish points: the question is whether we are consistent enough to take advantage.
 
We win 11 out of 11, it'll be ours.

We win 10 out of 11, including beating Arsenal, it'll be ours.

We win 9 out of 11, including beating Arsenal or winning 10 out of 11 but not beating Arsenal we'd have a small chance.


Any other scenario probably won't be enough for me.

We max out at 94 points, Arsenal at 99 points. The winner is probably going to need 90 points minimum in my opinion.

FiveThirtyEight still estimates lower which I'm not sure about:

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According to FiveThirtyEight we're significant favourites to win every remaining game. Arsenal are only favourites in 8/10, City (A) and Liverpool (A) they're not and they're only 5% more likely to beat Newcastle (A) than they're to lose.

Stats don't decide games but they're a decent indicator.
 
They lost at Everton, drew with Brentford at home and then lost at home to us picking up 1pt out of a possible 9. So things can change very quickly.

Having said that, I think the next two will be definitive. We play Liverpool before they play Leeds at home. Then we play Southampton away before they play Liverpool at Anfield the following day.

If the gap reduces over the next two then I think we'll go on and win it. But if it stays the same or increases it's game over.
 
We’ve played in 3rd gear this season and now it’s the business end and we have seemed to of clicked again. Will that momentum carry us through? As people have mentioned before we normally do well when we play twice a week. Arsenal have been flat out since the start maybe the mental and physical fatigue will kick in with the pressure. Just enjoy the ride what ever happens. Gonna be an exciting end that’s for sure
 
supercity88 said:
If the gap reduces over the next two then I think we'll go on and win it. But if it stays the same or increases it's game over.
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If the gap stays the same before our game, we can win it. What's more, I'd back us to win it.

As you say, things can change quickly. Even if Arsenal are 8 (!) pts clear before the game at the Etihad, we can win it, provided that we beat them and then win the game in hand. They are less experienced than Ferguson's United, who were 8 pts clear with 6 games to go. Squeaky bum time, etc.

Arsenal have 4 difficult games in a row in late April and early May: City (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (a) and Brighton (h). They can drop 5-8 pts in these games. Also,I wouldn't bet against a shocking result in their last 2 games.

Generally, I find 538's predictions much more reliable than fans' opinions, for they are not subject to various biases to the same extent. But it's a statistical tool that can't take some relevant factors into account, e.g. title-winning experience and City's ability to win close races.

Arsenal are an excellent team, but we are better and, IMO, are slight favourites to win the title. If they win, fair play to them.

Edit: We are likely to have 2 games in hand before our game with Arsenal. They may be 11 pts clear before that game. And we can still win the league, if we win that game and then the games in hand. The last weeks will be incredible if we stay in all competitions.
 
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alexmcity said:
If the gap stays the same before our game, we can win it. What's more, I'd back us to win it.

As you say, things can change quickly. Even if Arsenal are 8 (!) pts clear before the game at the Etihad, we can win it, provided that we beat them and then win the game in hand. They are less experienced than Ferguson's United, who were 8 pts clear with 6 games to go. Squeaky bum time, etc.

Arsenal have 4 difficult games in a row in late April and early May: City (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (a) and Brighton (h). They can drop 5-8 pts in these games. Also,I wouldn't bet against a shocking result in their last 2 games.

Generally, I find 538's predictions much more reliable than fans' opinions, for they are not subject to various biases to the same extent. But it's a statistical tool that can't take some relevant factors into account, e.g. title-winning experience and City's ability to win close races.

Arsenal are an excellent team, but we are better and, IMO, are slight favourites to win the title. If they win, fair play to them.

Edit: We are likely to have 2 games in hand before our game with Arsenal. They may be 11 pts clear before that game. And we can still win the league, if we win that game and then the games in hand. The last weeks will be incredible if we stay in all competitions.
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Excellent post. 100% agree with all of that.
I think it’s certain that we’ll have two games in hand going into the Arsenal game. There are no available spare dates for us to play either of our games that need rearranging (West Ham and Brighton) until May.
 
alexmcity said:
If the gap stays the same before our game, we can win it. What's more, I'd back us to win it.

As you say, things can change quickly. Even if Arsenal are 8 (!) pts clear before the game at the Etihad, we can win it, provided that we beat them and then win the game in hand. They are less experienced than Ferguson's United, who were 8 pts clear with 6 games to go. Squeaky bum time, etc.

Arsenal have 4 difficult games in a row in late April and early May: City (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (a) and Brighton (h). They can drop 5-8 pts in these games. Also,I wouldn't bet against a shocking result in their last 2 games.

Generally, I find 538's predictions much more reliable than fans' opinions, for they are not subject to various biases to the same extent. But it's a statistical tool that can't take some relevant factors into account, e.g. title-winning experience and City's ability to win close races.

Arsenal are an excellent team, but we are better and, IMO, are slight favourites to win the title. If they win, fair play to them.

Edit: We are likely to have 2 games in hand before our game with Arsenal. They may be 11 pts clear before that game. And we can still win the league, if we win that game and then the games in hand. The last weeks will be incredible if we stay in all competitions.
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We can win it as long as it is mathematically possible to do so, but I don't think we will unless we make inroads in the next couple of games. The games are piling up for us, which makes winning games in hand no easy task. We can still win it, and the stats might show us as favourites, but sport doesn't follow the rules or the stats so they're largely pointless. You wouldn't have expected Everton to take a point at our place or beat Arsenal at home but they did. If Arsenal beat Leeds and Liverpool then they'll go on and win it. I don't think they will win at Anfield though!
 
Looking at the calendar, if we get to the FA Cup final and CL final then the only free midweeks we have until the end of the season is 3rd/4th May and the 24th/25th May.

Which means we won't be level with Arsenal on games played until the last match of the season.

IMO that's a pretty big advantage to them because it means they'll have the confidence of being 1st in the table even if we have a game in hand.
 
domalino said:
Looking at the calendar, if we get to the FA Cup final and CL final then the only free midweeks we have until the end of the season is 3rd/4th May and the 24th/25th May.

Which means we won't be level with Arsenal on games played until the last match of the season.

IMO that's a pretty big advantage to them because it means they'll have the confidence of being 1st in the table even if we have a game in hand.
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Even better top for a week only , the week the pots handed out :)
 
Alfie Budd said:
Excellent post. 100% agree with all of that.
I think it’s certain that we’ll have two games in hand going into the Arsenal game. There are no available spare dates for us to play either of our games that need rearranging (West Ham and Brighton) until May.
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Reason 1 million why I hate the international break. We are on fire right now and now we have 2 weeks off. Plus we have to cram these games in an already difficult crammed end to the season. These internationals are a waste of time
 
supercity88 said:
If Arsenal beat Leeds and Liverpool then they'll go on and win it.
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That's far from guaranteed. Arsenal will have 8 games after that, mostly against teams fighting for CL or to avoid relegation. A lot could happen. I'd be surprised if they won all their "easy" games. Time will tell. We should hang in there and beat them.
 
MCFC1993 said:
We win 11 out of 11, it'll be ours.

We win 10 out of 11, including beating Arsenal, it'll be ours.

We win 9 out of 11, including beating Arsenal or winning 10 out of 11 but not beating Arsenal we'd have a small chance.


Any other scenario probably won't be enough for me.

We max out at 94 points, Arsenal at 99 points. The winner is probably going to need 90 points minimum in my opinion.

FiveThirtyEight still estimates lower which I'm not sure about:

View attachment 72690


According to FiveThirtyEight we're significant favourites to win every remaining game. Arsenal are only favourites in 8/10, City (A) and Liverpool (A) they're not and they're only 5% more likely to beat Newcastle (A) than they're to lose.

Stats don't decide games but they're a decent indicator.
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Sporting index have Arsenal on 88 and City on 86.

As you say, means nothing really. But I’d certainly take our chances if Arsenal were done on anything sub 90.
 
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