EU referendum

[mcfc1632]

Saw Gove being taken apart by Faisal Islam on Sky news. No real answers on justification for the benefits of Brexit.
As I said earlier, I'll be voting on economic grounds for what I believe will be best for me and my family in the short to medium term as it's anybody's guess what will happen in the long term. I'll be voting to stay in.

OMG - I know people see what they want to see, but to say that"....Gove being taken apart by Faisal Islam on Sky news....." How can anyone take that view? - unless they actually did no watch the interview - only SKY's very carefully edited highlights.

Gove handed Islam his arse.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

I've asked this before but had no takers. Do we need a trade deal with Latvia, Poland, Greece, Lithuania, Portugal, etc? Or just with the likes of Germany, France, Italy and Spain?

No expert mate....just good at using google!;) but my understanding is we would have to agree a deal with the EU to access the single market and couldnt deal with individual EU countries without that agreement(someone else might be able to confirm this for you!)...Canada just spent the last 5years getting to an agreement....the problem you have is if you cant come to an agreement, then the EU can apply a tariff to all UK goods making it difficult for us to be competitive...meaning our economy shrinks!....this is classed as the "WTO rules"...As soon as we leave we start being charged import duties on the goods we sell to the EU single market.... our current membership deal covers alot of this cost....once we start having to pay duty that cost will have to be past on to the buyer....meaning this will give us a disadvantage to the rest of the EU....

A Guardian Report from April...

UK exporters will be charged import duties on the goods they sell into the EU, just as they do to any country that is a member of a trading bloc.

Were the UK to go down the route of looking for an FTA with the EU (sometimes referred to as the Canada model), there would be free movement of goods between the UK and the EU. However, the Canada deal took over five years to negotiate. The UK’s bargaining power would be weaker: the UK sells about 50% of its goods to the EU, while the EU sells about 6% of its goods to the UK.

If no deal is reached, then the WTO rules apply. This means that the EU can apply a tariff to UK goods, provided the tariff is no higher than those imposed on goods imported into the EU from other non-member states. It is estimated that tariffs would be imposed on 90% of the UK’s goods exports to the EU by value, meaning many exporters will become less price competitive.

 

[sir baconface]

Portugal has to be included in the deal because I refuse to pay any more for my pot noodles than I already do over here.

My mistake, Blu. Special dispensation to Portugal.

 

[Monkfish]

OMG - I know people see what they want to see, but to say that"....Gove being taken apart by Faisal Islam on Sky news....." How can anyone take that view? - unless they actually did no watch the interview - only SKY's very carefully edited highlights.

Gove handed Islam his arse.

He is the Gove erner for sure

Q98 Chair: One is: if “good” requires pupil performance to exceed the national average, and if all schools must be good, how is this mathematically possible?

Michael Gove: By getting better all the time.

Q99 Chair: So it is possible, is it?

Michael Gove: It is possible to get better all the time.

Q100 Chair: Were you better at literacy than numeracy, Secretary of State?

Michael Gove: I cannot remember.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Of course Greece would have to re-structure in or out of the eu but it is ultimately the decision of the people on it's current trajectory it will be a zombie state for the next 20 years minimum- I think most people on both sides will agree that the birth place of democracy was the first to loose it in this club.

But it's not just Greece, take Italy for example, the speculators forced their prime minister (Berlusconi) out and a technocrat Mario Monti was placed in the prime minister's job to try and bring down the yields on Italian bonds. Whether Berlusconi going or not was a good thing is irrelevant - it is an example of many incidents where the euro has had a direct impact on a democratically elected leader (now the most Eurosceptic country in the eu). Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Cyprus have all been hostages in one way or another to troika where in reality elected government ceased to exist.

The equation is simple single currency equals joint fiscal policy which by definition needs political union. There is no fudge on that equation.

I've got not@ problem with your equation and I'm glad we are not in the Eurozone. I think Greece would be better off exiting the Eurozone and look to rebuild their economy. Obviously it won't be easy.

The Greek situation reinforces how important it is to have a string economy, something the Brexiters are trying to play down!

Berluscoli was like the cat with nine lives. He did well to last so long!

 

[sir baconface]

No expert mate....just good at using google!;) but my understanding is we would have to agree a deal with the EU to access the single market and couldnt deal with individual EU countries without that agreement(someone else might be able to confirm this for you!)...Canada just spent the last 5years getting to an agreement....the problem you have is if you cant come to an agreement, then the EU can apply a tariff to all UK goods making it difficult for us to be competitive...meaning our economy shrinks!....this is classed as the "WTO rules"...As soon as we leave we start being charged import duties on the goods we sell to the EU single market.... our current membership deal covers alot of this cost....once we start having to pay duty that cost will have to be past on to the buyer....meaning this will give us a disadvantage to the rest of the EU....

A Guardian Report from April...

UK exporters will be charged import duties on the goods they sell into the EU, just as they do to any country that is a member of a trading bloc.

Were the UK to go down the route of looking for an FTA with the EU (sometimes referred to as the Canada model), there would be free movement of goods between the UK and the EU. However, the Canada deal took over five years to negotiate. The UK’s bargaining power would be weaker: the UK sells about 50% of its goods to the EU, while the EU sells about 6% of its goods to the UK.

If no deal is reached, then the WTO rules apply. This means that the EU can apply a tariff to UK goods, provided the tariff is no higher than those imposed on goods imported into the EU from other non-member states. It is estimated that tariffs would be imposed on 90% of the UK’s goods exports to the EU by value, meaning many exporters will become less price competitive.

Cheers mate but what I'm trying to understand I whether it is feasible to negotiate a unilateral deal with, say, Germany. Or do EU rules forbid that?

I'm not putting you personally on the spot. It's a general question.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

Cheers mate but what I'm trying to understand I whether it is feasible to negotiate a unilateral deal with, say, Germany. Or do EU rules forbid that?

I'm not putting you personally on the spot. It's a general question.

Dont worry mate....I know! My understanding is that we will NOT be able to trade with any EU member without first having agreement with the EU governing body.....So to your answer...no, we cant do a side deal with France or Germany!

 

[yep]

Think a post-Brexit 'Norway style' EU deal would work? As a Norwegian ex-EU adviser, I can tell you you're wrong"

Somewhat apples and oranges!
Yes the 5,273,185 Norwegians would think that but a 65,084,466 UK population by definition can get a better deal if only to protect German, Spanish and French exports. Unless our European "friends" are really only our "friends" when we put more money in than we get out. If we brexit, the remaining ( and even new?) contributors to the ever expanding EU budget will be somewhat influenced by that as well and become more like the UK in wanting reforms!

 

[smudgedj]

No expert mate....just good at using google!;) but my understanding is we would have to agree a deal with the EU to access the single market and couldnt deal with individual EU countries without that agreement(someone else might be able to confirm this for you!)...Canada just spent the last 5years getting to an agreement....the problem you have is if you cant come to an agreement, then the EU can apply a tariff to all UK goods making it difficult for us to be competitive...meaning our economy shrinks!....this is classed as the "WTO rules"...As soon as we leave we start being charged import duties on the goods we sell to the EU single market.... our current membership deal covers alot of this cost....once we start having to pay duty that cost will have to be past on to the buyer....meaning this will give us a disadvantage to the rest of the EU....

A Guardian Report from April...

UK exporters will be charged import duties on the goods they sell into the EU, just as they do to any country that is a member of a trading bloc.

Were the UK to go down the route of looking for an FTA with the EU (sometimes referred to as the Canada model), there would be free movement of goods between the UK and the EU. However, the Canada deal took over five years to negotiate. The UK’s bargaining power would be weaker: the UK sells about 50% of its goods to the EU, while the EU sells about 6% of its goods to the UK.

If no deal is reached, then the WTO rules apply. This means that the EU can apply a tariff to UK goods, provided the tariff is no higher than those imposed on goods imported into the EU from other non-member states. It is estimated that tariffs would be imposed on 90% of the UK’s goods exports to the EU by value, meaning many exporters will become less price competitive.

Poor Canada having to wait 5 years for a trade deal that could have been completed in a few months.

 

[sir baconface]

Dont worry mate....I know! My understanding is that we will NOT be able to trade with any EU member without first having agreement with the EU governing body.....So to your answer...no, we cant do a side deal with France or Germany!

OK. Thanks for that, No 1.

 

[smudgedj]

Cheers mate but what I'm trying to understand I whether it is feasible to negotiate a unilateral deal with, say, Germany. Or do EU rules forbid that?

I'm not putting you personally on the spot. It's a general question.

No they can´t The EU negotiates on behalf of all the members.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

I've got not@ problem with your equation and I'm glad we are not in the Eurozone. I think Greece would be better off exiting the Eurozone and look to rebuild their economy. Obviously it won't be easy.

The Greek situation reinforces how important it is to have a string economy, something the Brexiters are trying to play down!

Berluscoli was like the cat with nine lives. He did well to last so long!

UK are not in the Eurozone but the impact of the inevitable changes coming in the eu is not being considered because it will have repercussions to the uk in many areas. It's like agreeing to get married to someone when they've already told you that they are going to have a sex change after you've exchanged vows - the dynamics in your long term relationship will change.

 

[sir baconface]

No they can´t The EU negotiates on behalf of all the members.

Ta, smudge.

 

[balotelli's back pocket]

If the mail wants brexit, im voting in.

Only joking.

I cant vote.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

Poor Canada having to wait 5 years for a trade deal that could have been completed in a few months.

Would only take a few months if Canada was willing to bend over and take what they were given and be thankful for it.....it took 5 years because they wanted the best deal possible for their country...as stated the UK sell 50% of its exports to the EU and the EU only import 6% to the UK so we hardly negotiating from a position of strength..

 

[yep]

 

[smudgedj]

Would only take a few months if Canada was willing to bend over and take what they were given and be thankful for it.....it took 5 years because they wanted the best deal possible for their country...as stated the UK sell 50% of its exports to the EU and the EU only import 6% to the UK so we hardly negotiating from a position of strength..

It took five years because the EU were negotiating for 28 different countries all with different wants and needs.
What are those percentages in monetary terms? 50% of 10 is 5 whereas 6% of 100 is 6

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

It took five years because the EU were negotiating for 28 different countries all with different wants and needs.
What are those percentages in monetary terms? 50% of 10 is 5 whereas 6% of 100 is 6

To be honest mate....does it really matter what the % is.....if you are part of the 1% or 5% or 10% etc....that loses their jobs because there companies cant be competitive on the single market, does it really matter?....is one job more important than another?...I think not.....

 

[yep]

It took five years because the EU were negotiating for 28 different countries all with different wants and needs.
What are those percentages in monetary terms? 50% of 10 is 5 whereas 6% of 100 is 6

Figures from the ONS showed that Europe is gradually becoming a less important destination for UK companies. In 2000, 60% of exports went to other EU countries, but the percentage fell to 58% in 2005, 54% in 2010 and 47% in 2015.

Over the same period, imports from the EU remained constant, accounting for 54% in both 2000 and 2015.

Europe has tended to be a less crucial market for UK service sector companies, many of whom have close business links with the US. Since 2000, the percentage of services sector exports going to the EU has remained at around 40%. Taking goods and services together, the share of exports going to the EU has fallen from 54% in 2000 to 44% in 2015
The latest ONS figures show that Britain had a £34.7bn deficit in the trade of goods in the first three months of 2016, up by £1.4bn on the final quarter of 2015. The deficit with the EU accounted for more than two thirds of the shortfall, with the deficit with non-EU countries standing at £10.8bn.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

UK are not in the Eurozone but the impact of the inevitable changes coming in the eu is not being considered because it will have repercussions to the uk in many areas. It's like agreeing to get married to someone when they've already told you that they are going to have a sex change after you've exchanged vows - the dynamics in your long term relationship will change.

Haha! Love the sex change analogy!

That said, I see it more like joining a snooker club. You have to abide by club rules but how well you and other players perform on the green bays will influence how much enjoyment you get out of your membership.

Yes of course there are risks that we will be adversely affected by the Eurozone but the overwhelming majority of economists believe this risk is less than Brexit!