Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

I'm not sure how long any data on variant prevalence in Bolton has been available.

Informative thread here from a PHE scientist quotes 7-21 days lag on sequencing data.



So it might genuinely be hot off the press that it's associated with the Indian variant.

Thank you will look at that.

And, sorry, yes I should have been clearer.

I meant why they missed the spike in cases not proof of the cause.

That spike WAS obvious long before it got any public mention.

It was surely given what has happened in recent months a pretty safe bet many spikes will be caused by faster spreading variants. That appears to have been the new normal for some months now.

I am arguing that if you see a jump in cases like in Bolton the urgency is to let people know early via local media and suggest caution to drive down spread whilst trying to find out why. Not wait until you know if it is a super spread as by then it will have superspread as you wait.

 

[grunge]

Anyone know what has caused the blackburn spike? factory super spread event? last time I saw a purple spot on the map was a prison outbreak

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Curious how this 'u40s should be offered an alternative to AZ' thing is going to work practically speaking. As far as I'm aware, I thought pretty much every place only had one type of vaccine at hand, so is it even possible to offer an alternative? Will they suddenly start stocking two at most vaccine sites? Or will it be clear when booking which one will be available so u40s can choose based on this recommendation? Not complaining, just genuinely curious.

When you try to book, if you’re under 40, you won’t be able to book into a slot offering AZ. The only exceptions will be for older men who are overweight and are either unwilling to travel or want it quicker, as they’re more concerned about the effects of Covid than the very, very rare side effect of taking the vaccine.
This change is all down to the risk of the disease coming down, so the vaccine risk, as small as it is, becomes more relevant. Should there be a resurgence of Covid in the summer (and there’s no reason to think there will be), this guidance will undoubtedly be changed.

 

[NeilYoungIsBack]

Unfortunately if too many younger people react as you did we will all be in trouble.

Actually I am aged 56 , but I still find your comments about young people pretty appalling.

 

[Healdplace]

Just reported that surge testing in Bolton and London - the two areas most badly infected by it - are being introduced as cases of the Indian variant have doubled in a week.

And they believe they will not evade the vaccine as the variant has not got the mutations normally associated with ones that do.

Good news.

 

[Healdplace]

Actually I am aged 56 , but I still find your comments about young people pretty appalling.

I apologise then if so as I was certainly not making any attempt to insult young people.

Would appreciate if you could say why - though - as I genuinely have no idea what was unintentionally insulting.

I did not mention that chart of % uptake because I understood it was not meaningful to what I was saying being based on historic data which moved downwards through age groups.

 

[True_Blue69]

The good (ish) news on this new variant which it seems IS responsible for why the North West has risen in cases in the past week or two with clusters in areas - with people that have families back in India it seems too - is that the evidence as yet is that the most vulnerable are still surviving it and most do not even get sick enough to need hospital and hardly any seem to have died even with it being a factor.

The vaccinations appear to work even against this super spreader - if not to stop you catching it then to do the job they are really meant to do - stop it being deadly.

Couple that with the fact that now 70% of those testing positive are under 40 and these are more often now the ones getting sick and being hospitalised (though with lower risk of death because of lack of comorbidities) THIS is the area they now have to address and drive up vaccinations in those younger ages.

The moves in recent weeks emphasising this all look to me to have been groundwork preparing for this change of tack

Todays press conference by the medics was clearly aimed at getting younger people to be vaccinated as they are now the real problem.

Ironically they are the most desperate for a return to normality but by not taking up the vaccines they are the ones putting that opening up at risk. This is the message we need to get across to those who on balance think it safer not to 'risk' a vaccine versus the 'chance' of catching Covid but not really suffering if they do, They need to see that will not save a normal Summer if cases spike and drive up NHS admissions.

We need young people who have had it to be mobilised and an urgent public messaging campaign to get their peers to think again using those in their age group who have had Covid and can warn it can be a lot worse than getting a jab.

Please stop saying the vaccines need to be driven up in under 40s and a campaign to make them take it is needed. It has not been offered so of course this was always going to be the case if the vaccines turned out to work.

 

[Healdplace]

Anyone know what has caused the blackburn spike? factory super spread event? last time I saw a purple spot on the map was a prison outbreak

View attachment 16210

This is Hyndburn really - Accrington - which has had outbreaks and spikes right through the pandemic.

Blackburn itself is Iess high right now but it has the highest Pop Score in the UK at 12, 206 - miles above everywhere in GM - all 10 boroughs of which (even Bolton) are yet to reach 10,000. And indeed Bolton is behind Manchester, Oldham and Rochdale in reaching 10,000. Even though none are likely to get there any tie soon at current rates.

Many reasons why areas spike - but East Lancashire has always had high numbers because it is a perfect storm of urban area with people living in houses built close together and working in environments that drive contagion and also with fairly high ethnic populations that throughout the pandemic we have known seem to have a greater likelihood I believe for genetic reasons of being impacted by Covid.

Plus that data is a few days old.

Blackburn is not one of the main areas of concern at present in the way Bolton is. But as Chorley and Hyndburn have also had recent spikes though the Hyndburn one seems to have waned a bit as Bolton rose.

They have announced surge testing in Bolton this morning and in parts of London as the new variant seems to have doubled there in the past 7 days.

But not heard that about East Lancashire as yet.

 

[Healdplace]

Please stop saying the vaccines need to be driven up in under 40s and a campaign to make them take it is needed. It has not been offered so of course this was always going to be the case if the vaccines turned out to work.

I know and have not said otherwise. See my post above.

My comment was about the briefing this morning NOT the chart posted that I never refered to as I was well aware of why it was misleading.

I have obviously upset people today - for reasons I still do not understand.

So I am taking time off now as I have work I need to get on with anyway.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

many spikes will be caused by faster spreading variants.

I don't think this is the case - there's no strong evidence that any variants are significantly faster spreading than the "Kent" variant.

The reason current variants are of concern is mainly potential for immune escape rather than faster transmission.

 

[crooky]

Good news on under 40s having the choice of vaccines.

I wasn't convinced the AZ one was worth the hassle being in my early 30s. Until you hardy bunch convinced me it was still probably best to 'risk' it. Because when Covid picks up again the balance of risk is definitely higher with getting Covid.

I wonder what the alternative will be though. If it's anything but Pfizer then you potentially risk some other issue on a vaccine that hasn't been used for long enough for them to spot any issues with all age groups.

 

[ell]

Good news on under 40s having the choice of vaccines.

I wasn't convinced the AZ one was worth the hassle being in my early 30s. Until you hardy bunch convinced me it was still probably best to 'risk' it. Because when Covid picks up again the balance of risk is definitely higher with getting Covid.

I wonder what the alternative will be though. If it's anything but Pfizer then you potentially risk some other issue on a vaccine that hasn't been used for long enough for them to spot any issues with all age groups.

Could be Moderna though which has been used in the USA and Canada etc

 

[Toney’s bookie]

I’m 39 and every one of my friends and peers between 20 and 40 are all keen to get their jab asap. I managed to get mine a few weeks ago at an AZ walk in for 30+ people and I’ve had loads of messages asking me where the next one might be. I agree with those that point out that vaccine uptake won’t be a problem but you have to offer it them in the first place. Hopefully that won’t be too far away.

As an aside, I’m kind of expecting my 2nd dose to be a lot quicker than 12 weeks as most of the first doses in the next tranche will now be U40s and so Pfizer / Moderna leaving AZ stocks for those of us waiting for our 2nd jab. Not bothered if not but just a hunch.

 

[Healdplace]

I don't think this is the case - there's no strong evidence that any variants are significantly faster spreading than the "Kent" variant.

The reason current variants are of concern is mainly potential for immune escape rather than faster transmission.

Only going off what they were saying about the surge testing they are doing on the Indian variant because of how it has doubled in a week in Bolton and parts of London.

And thank you Crooky - that is what I was trying to show was being revealed about young people's reluctance. Not insulting anybody. I said exactly the same about targeting messaging to older people several times in here at the start of the vaccination programme. So if I was insulting anyone I did it evenly at least But in fact I think targeted messaging matters in a pandemic.

I am totally aware most younger people have not been offered it yet so not basing it on % numbers as that would be misleading. Not once did I suggest I was - but that chart posted earlier presumably led to the assumption I was reacting to that when I was not.

As I had said I was listening to what they were saying in an impromptu press conference about young people and the vaccine programme and why the government appear to have changed tack and so gave a press conference this morning that only I seem to have seen (by accident myself as it was unannounced).

THAT was what I was talking about. Not insulting anyone via dubious stats.

But I do not want to get into a row and as noted do have a busy day so I am going to get some work done.

 

[Healdplace]

Will not engage in discussion for reasons explained - but will try to pop back and just post data as and when I can.

England hospital deaths:

12 with 0 from NW

First time with 0 deaths in NW on a Friday in months.

One of the 12 may well be discounted as historic


Past weeks 14 with 2 NW last week v 19 / 4 - 18 / 3 and 33 / 4 in previous weeks.

 

[Manc in London]

So, young people are to blame for not getting vaccinated when most of them haven't even been offered it yet.

Ok, Boomer.

Deary me.

 

[Healdplace]

Scottish data

1 death - was 0 last week

236 cases - was 191 last week

1.2% positivity - was 1.1% last week

68 patients - up 10 in day - was 67 last week

8 ventilated icu - down 3 on yesterday - was 9 last week.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland Data:

1 death - was 1 death last week

65 cases - was 108 last week

3.1% positivity - was 4% last week.

5 care home outbreaks - was 5 yesterday and 4 last week

599 Weekly total cases - was 626 yesterday and 653 last week

62 hospital patients - down 5 on yesterday and up 2 on last week

3 ventilated patients - down 2 on yesterday and 1 on last week.

 

[Healdplace]

Total deaths with out of hospital England to come:- 14 - was 15 last wk

Total cases from 3 nations with England to come:- 348 - was 335 last wk.


More later

 

[Marvin]

PHE statement on Bolton / Indian variant(s).

Seems to me that it's likely that this variant is more contagious still than the Kent variant judging by increase in numbers in Bolton. The good news though is that there doesn't seem to be any suggestion of vaccine evasion...so get your vaccine when its offered and you'll be OK. That's the assumption I am operating on anyway.