Coronavirus (2022) thread

roubaixtuesday said:
On what basis?

Omicron is different for children in that it doesn't seem to be milder in the way it is for adults. Children's hospitalisation rates are unchanged vs delta. The vaccine is highly effective vs hospitalisation.
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Like you I’m very pro-vaccine and it’s clear in the impact it has had in adults that vaxxing has significantly reduced the effects of covid in the old and vulnerable.

However, it’s got to be recognised that children have NEVER been at significant risk from covid and the push to vax them can only realistically be from a transmission angle. With Delta v Omicron and hospitalisation with kids we could say that if (hypothetical numbers) jabs brought illness in adults down from 5 per 1000 at Delta to 1 in 1000 for Omi then that has had a huge impact. But if kids have always been 0.2 per 1000 and that stays unchanged for omi it just means they’ve never been seriously affected and that remains the case - not that omi impacts them more than adults. Surely that is obvious?
 
davealvers said:
Like you I’m very pro-vaccine and it’s clear in the impact it has had in adults that vaxxing has significantly reduced the effects of covid in the old and vulnerable.

However, it’s got to be recognised that children have NEVER been at significant risk from covid and the push to vax them can only realistically be from a transmission angle. With Delta v Omicron and hospitalisation with kids we could say that if (hypothetical numbers) jabs brought illness in adults down from 5 per 1000 at Delta to 1 in 1000 for Omi then that has had a huge impact. But if kids have always been 0.2 per 1000 and that stays unchanged for omi it just means they’ve never been seriously affected and that remains the case - not that omi impacts them more than adults. Surely that is obvious?
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I guess it depends if you add long covid into the risk assessment.

In the ONS Survey, around 1 in 5 respondents reporting long lasting symptoms had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 less than 12 weeks previously, while around 7 in 10 respondents had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 at least 12 weeks previously. This includes 1 in 3 respondents who had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 at least one year previously.

The ONS estimated that the percentage of people suffering Long COVID in the overall population (i.e., not only those infected) by age group are:


  • 29% of children aged 2 to 11
  • 39% of people aged 12 to 16
  • 28% of people aged 17 to 24
  • 79% of people aged 25 to 34
  • 55% of people aged 35 to 49
  • 49% of people aged 50 to 69
  • 21% of people aged 70+
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post.parliament.uk

Long COVID: The long-term health effects of COVID-19 - POST

What is Long COVID ? How many people are affected? What are the key challenges for diagnosis and treatment? What are the priority areas for research?
post.parliament.uk post.parliament.uk
 
davealvers said:
Like you I’m very pro-vaccine and it’s clear in the impact it has had in adults that vaxxing has significantly reduced the effects of covid in the old and vulnerable.

However, it’s got to be recognised that children have NEVER been at significant risk from covid and the push to vax them can only realistically be from a transmission angle. With Delta v Omicron and hospitalisation with kids we could say that if (hypothetical numbers) jabs brought illness in adults down from 5 per 1000 at Delta to 1 in 1000 for Omi then that has had a huge impact. But if kids have always been 0.2 per 1000 and that stays unchanged for omi it just means they’ve never been seriously affected and that remains the case - not that omi impacts them more than adults. Surely that is obvious?
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The risk benefit for children is very clearly in favour of vaccination.

The vaccine was approved in the UK for all children 12-15yo last June, and for 5-11 yo recently IIRC.

Not only has it been approved as safe and efficacious on the basis of clinical trials, many millions of doses have been given worldwide in real world settings, including in that younger age group providing further evidence of safety.

Meanwhile, have either procrastinated on or not proceeded at all with vaccinating these age groups in the UK, we're currently hospitalising record numbers, I think >100\day.

Now that's not, I hasten to add, some kind of health emergency. But as we have the means to stop it, why wouldn't we? Even without with the other concerns around long covid, transmission to older generations, school absences etc.

Surely that is obvious?
 
davealvers said:
Like you I’m very pro-vaccine and it’s clear in the impact it has had in adults that vaxxing has significantly reduced the effects of covid in the old and vulnerable.

However, it’s got to be recognised that children have NEVER been at significant risk from covid and the push to vax them can only realistically be from a transmission angle. With Delta v Omicron and hospitalisation with kids we could say that if (hypothetical numbers) jabs brought illness in adults down from 5 per 1000 at Delta to 1 in 1000 for Omi then that has had a huge impact. But if kids have always been 0.2 per 1000 and that stays unchanged for omi it just means they’ve never been seriously affected and that remains the case - not that omi impacts them more than adults. Surely that is obvious?
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The main argument to vaccinate kids is to prevent transmission. We know the vaccines prevent 'some' transmission and some is enough to justify vaccination. In any event the vaccines also trigger long term acquired immunity which prevents illness in an infection years later.

The only time the vaccine argument weakens for any group is if the vaccine is clearly more dangerous for that group but this is very hard to justify whilst the safety profile of the vaccines is very good and the risk of illness, hospitalisation or death from COVID is almost always greater.

Another reason to vaccinate is because many people get ill, don't go to hospital and don't die but they do get long-COVID. The risks posed by long-COVID are only avoidable through vaccination. We have no idea if the effects of long-COVID are permanent or lead to long term complications.
 
blueinsa said:
If they are past the average life expectancy in the UK for a man or woman then how do you then claim it’s knocked 10,11,12 or 13 years off their life expectancy?
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It’s a rather technical point but if you live up to life expectancy, the chances are that you have a good number of years left (as normal life expectancy includes all deaths where people die in childhood and as young adults etc).
 
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Octavian said:
Not fudged purposely and not fudged to the degree you and bluemc1 are claiming.

There’s still a huge figure of people over 100,000 that has died FROM Covid.
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Not strictly FROM Covid but as a result of catching Covid.
It exacerbated existing conditions to the point where continued existence was not possible.
Only from Covid is a around 10% of the total as shown by recent statistics.
Both are equally shit. Both are a fucking huge problem.
Sadly the anti-vax loons will point to the recent statistics as their reason for why the response was overboard. It wasn't. And they need to be called out about it
 
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has named a new strain of Omicron as a "variant under investigation".

The agency said: "The Omicron variant sub-lineage known as BA.2 has been designated as a variant under investigation.

"The number of BA.2 cases is currently low, with the original Omicron lineage BA.1 still dominant in the UK."

It added that "further analyses" will now take place
 
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