- 10 Feb 2014
I hope most of the thread posters don't use casinos, as the casino owners will be rubbing their hands at the 'logic' on this thread. It’s called a number of things. The “gambler’s fallacy,” and the “Monte Carlo fallacy,” and even “the fallacy of the maturity of chances.” It all boils down to one basic, misguided belief: In games of chance, like roulette or craps or picking a team to be home or away, if a certain outcome hasn’t happened in awhile, it’s more likely to occur in the future.They had 13 in a row. Have you read thr last few pages.
Sadly, every roll of the dice, and every spin at roulette, is its own thing. There is an expression in gambling circles, “The dice have no memory.” As in life, just because something has happened a lot in the past doesn’t mean it’s more or less likely to happen in the future. There’s really no such thing as a certain outcome being “overdue.” The odds remain the same, no matter what’s transpired during a previous roll or spin.
Think your number or color has to hit soon? The longest recorded streak of one color in roulette in American casino history happened in 1943 when the color red won 32 consecutive times. In a row. The people convinced black had to hit next were absolutely right. Eventually..........