EFL Cup - 3rd Round Draw (WBA away)

franksinatra said:
They had 13 in a row. Have you read thr last few pages.
Click to expand...
I hope most of the thread posters don't use casinos, as the casino owners will be rubbing their hands at the 'logic' on this thread. It’s called a number of things. The “gambler’s fallacy,” and the “Monte Carlo fallacy,” and even “the fallacy of the maturity of chances.” It all boils down to one basic, misguided belief: In games of chance, like roulette or craps or picking a team to be home or away, if a certain outcome hasn’t happened in awhile, it’s more likely to occur in the future.
Sadly, every roll of the dice, and every spin at roulette, is its own thing. There is an expression in gambling circles, “The dice have no memory.” As in life, just because something has happened a lot in the past doesn’t mean it’s more or less likely to happen in the future. There’s really no such thing as a certain outcome being “overdue.” The odds remain the same, no matter what’s transpired during a previous roll or spin.

Think your number or color has to hit soon? The longest recorded streak of one color in roulette in American casino history happened in 1943 when the color red won 32 consecutive times. In a row. The people convinced black had to hit next were absolutely right. Eventually..........
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
I hope most of the thread posters don't use casinos, as the casino owners will be rubbing their hands at the 'logic' on this thread. It’s called a number of things. The “gambler’s fallacy,” and the “Monte Carlo fallacy,” and even “the fallacy of the maturity of chances.” It all boils down to one basic, misguided belief: In games of chance, like roulette or craps or picking a team to be home or away, if a certain outcome hasn’t happened in awhile, it’s more likely to occur in the future.
Sadly, every roll of the dice, and every spin at roulette, is its own thing. There is an expression in gambling circles, “The dice have no memory.” As in life, just because something has happened a lot in the past doesn’t mean it’s more or less likely to happen in the future. There’s really no such thing as a certain outcome being “overdue.” The odds remain the same, no matter what’s transpired during a previous roll or spin.

Think your number or color has to hit soon? The longest recorded streak of one color in roulette in American casino history happened in 1943 when the color red won 32 consecutive times. In a row. The people convinced black had to hit next were absolutely right. Eventually..........
Click to expand...

I must admit that is how I understood things, but people seemed quite convinced, so not being a maths genius I deferred to their better understanding.

I do hope we do not get 32 consecutive away draws or that might push us all to our limits.
 
Eds said:
That's not right. What happens if 10 premier league teams are drawn first which leaves 10 out 53 the odds lengthen on us drawing one.
Click to expand...

You are looking at the one specific probability of being drawn in the 6th match and the previous 10 teams drawn out all being Prem tems. There are millions of other combinations for how the 64 balls can be drawn. I'm using basic probability law which is applied before any teams are drawn. If you worked out every single pemutation and calculated the probability of each occurance for a team being drawn away to another prem team or a top 5 championship side at some point in the draw, it would come to 19%. You'd need a big sheet of paper and a packet of anadin as well for the headache (other brands are available...)

Before the draw every team has a 50% chance of being drawn home or away and their opponents will be one of 63 other teams in the case of the FA Cup 3rd round. So the probability that opponent will be a premier league team is 19/63 as we cant play ourselves. In the example to include Huddersfield the top 5 of the Championship are also included so it's 24/63. We need both things to happen (ie drawn away and against one of those 24 teams) so the probability is 0.5 x 24/63 = 19%
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
I hope most of the thread posters don't use casinos, as the casino owners will be rubbing their hands at the 'logic' on this thread. It’s called a number of things. The “gambler’s fallacy,” and the “Monte Carlo fallacy,” and even “the fallacy of the maturity of chances.” It all boils down to one basic, misguided belief: In games of chance, like roulette or craps or picking a team to be home or away, if a certain outcome hasn’t happened in awhile, it’s more likely to occur in the future.
Sadly, every roll of the dice, and every spin at roulette, is its own thing. There is an expression in gambling circles, “The dice have no memory.” As in life, just because something has happened a lot in the past doesn’t mean it’s more or less likely to happen in the future. There’s really no such thing as a certain outcome being “overdue.” The odds remain the same, no matter what’s transpired during a previous roll or spin.

Think your number or color has to hit soon? The longest recorded streak of one color in roulette in American casino history happened in 1943 when the color red won 32 consecutive times. In a row. The people convinced black had to hit next were absolutely right. Eventually..........
Click to expand...

I've tried this argument before and it didn't get accepted. If you read something enough you start to believe it. It's unusual but so were the god knows how many home draws we had before that.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
I hope most of the thread posters don't use casinos, as the casino owners will be rubbing their hands at the 'logic' on this thread. It’s called a number of things. The “gambler’s fallacy,” and the “Monte Carlo fallacy,” and even “the fallacy of the maturity of chances.” It all boils down to one basic, misguided belief: In games of chance, like roulette or craps or picking a team to be home or away, if a certain outcome hasn’t happened in awhile, it’s more likely to occur in the future.
Sadly, every roll of the dice, and every spin at roulette, is its own thing. There is an expression in gambling circles, “The dice have no memory.” As in life, just because something has happened a lot in the past doesn’t mean it’s more or less likely to happen in the future. There’s really no such thing as a certain outcome being “overdue.” The odds remain the same, no matter what’s transpired during a previous roll or spin.

Think your number or color has to hit soon? The longest recorded streak of one color in roulette in American casino history happened in 1943 when the color red won 32 consecutive times. In a row. The people convinced black had to hit next were absolutely right. Eventually..........
Click to expand...

Even the forbes machines in betting shops regularly spit out 11/12/13 reds or blacks on the bounce.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
I hope most of the thread posters don't use casinos, as the casino owners will be rubbing their hands at the 'logic' on this thread. It’s called a number of things. The “gambler’s fallacy,” and the “Monte Carlo fallacy,” and even “the fallacy of the maturity of chances.” It all boils down to one basic, misguided belief: In games of chance, like roulette or craps or picking a team to be home or away, if a certain outcome hasn’t happened in awhile, it’s more likely to occur in the future.
Sadly, every roll of the dice, and every spin at roulette, is its own thing. There is an expression in gambling circles, “The dice have no memory.” As in life, just because something has happened a lot in the past doesn’t mean it’s more or less likely to happen in the future. There’s really no such thing as a certain outcome being “overdue.” The odds remain the same, no matter what’s transpired during a previous roll or spin.

Think your number or color has to hit soon? The longest recorded streak of one color in roulette in American casino history happened in 1943 when the color red won 32 consecutive times. In a row. The people convinced black had to hit next were absolutely right. Eventually..........
Click to expand...

Not that those casinos were a little bit dodgy.
They could make those tables talk.
 
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