General Election - 4th July 2024

[Vic]

They can't possibly believe this shit. It's not much of a deterrent if there's much, much more chance of never being sent there.

At a cost of £87,000 per person sent to Rwanda (based on £500m for the first 5700, who haven't gone yet)

 

[metalblue]

Most mortgages are fixed rate so as they expire, most mortgage holders will be impacted by the Truss budget. It's already affected 3.5 million mortgages - that's already half of those who were on fixed mortgages when Truss struck. By the end of this year, including those on variable or other not-fixed rates, most of all mortgage holders will have been impacted. More than a million people* facing higher rates by January 2025 may be one reason Sunak didn't want to wait - plus the "demographics" that their voter base is reducing daily and being replaced by people becoming 18.

* A million mortgages, so as most mortgages are held jointly, closer to 2 million voters. That 3.5 million mortgages already affected means around 6 million voters.

There have been around 1.7m mortgages taken out since Truss’s budget so where the 3.5m came from is anyone’s guess. The impact of Truss would have been felt in end Q3 and in to Q4 2022, around 136,000 people who remortgaged at higher fixed rates that were a consequence of the mini budget. At time of mini budget 2 yr fixed rates where 4.74 peaking 4 weeks later to 6.65. In the immediate aftermath of the mini budget the pound tumbled, the BoE raised rates to compensate for the extra risk. In short it had become more risky to lend money to the UK following on from Truss’s policy announcements.

Inflation was already high and there was a realisation in the markets that it was sticky. Interest rates around the world rose in response which started early in 2022 peaking globally summer last year and remain high, although we may see a cut next month.

 

[M18CTID]

I actually don’t give a shit who gets in as there all the same just different badge

If you seriously believe that they're "all the same" after the past 14 years - and in particular the past 5 years - then you need to have a word with yourself. And I'm not just talking about the way they've fucked this country up. I'm also referring to the complete and utter lack of integrity and the seemingly infinite number of scandals that have blighted the Conservative Party in recent years. But yeah, they're all the same!

 

[M18CTID]

Getting rid of what?

Every country couldn’t get ppe, do you think labour would have got ppe

Lockdown earlier and shut the economy down costing more money

Or lockdown earlier and save tens of thousands of lives. Next you'll be telling us that sending Covid-positive patients back to care homes from hospitals was a great move ffs!

 

[Vic]

That's what they would have to do to make such persons work.

I am not advocating it FFS! I am pointing out the reality behind these figures that Tories put forward to suggest the UK is full of idlers scrounging off the state.

I suspect @liveandletdive is someone who's economically inactive advocating that everyone else who's economically inactive should get a job and spare us from more foreigners coming here taking all the jobs no-one else wants to do.

 

[metalblue]

Precisely, I agree, they are either guarded from the facts - or they are aware of them and are taking the risk anyway. Either way it doesn’t work.

I think deterrents are a vastly overrated concept in general. They tend to be flawed at quite a basic psychological level, e.g. the death penalty is an objectively weak deterrent. Drug prohibition likewise.

Across all of these topics there’s a consistent thread that threatening a punishment is far less effective than actually addressing the symptoms.

Threats are only for the domestic audience. Farage saying he’d send the marines in ffs, a point in case.

 

[metalblue]

Thing is if the opposition starts heading far right we may well mirror France by doing that to keep them out.

I wonder if this is a genuine shift right rather than just people tired of the same old same old voting for different irrespective of the political hue on offer? More complex than a protest vote but borne from frustration nonetheless. Maybe Corbyn was a couple of GEs too early for his more radical ideas.

 

[Dave Ewing's Back 'eader]

If you seriously believe that they're "all the same" after the past 14 years - and in particular the past 5 years - then you need to have a word with yourself. And I'm not just talking about the way they've fucked this country up. I'm also referring to the complete and utter lack of integrity and the seemingly infinite number of scandals that have blighted the Conservative Party in recent years. But yeah, they're all the same!

Yer right, M18, they are not the same, but depressingly the effect seems to be the same. I have been alive since the middle of Attlee's government and I have yet to feel that one has been elected which would oversee better government, government for the benefit of the people who traipsed out to the polling booths. Unfortunately, there isn't one which isn't riddled with vested interests. I am still hopeful, though!

 

[Vic]

Anyone actually think this will happen? As much as I would like to see it, I just don't believe it.
60-70 majority to Labour, with the Tory's forming the opposition is my guess.

Tories seem to think that Labour having a supermajority is worth raising as a "fear" issue. It sounds like it might increase turnout for the possibility of destroying the Tory party for ever.

 

[Vic]

I actually don’t give a shit who gets in as there all the same just different badge

Don't come on here then trying to stir up apathy.