Middle East Conflict

[west didsblue]

I guess Israel could hand back stolen land too. Unfortunately both aren't going to happen. With indiscriminate missile attacks and now cutting food and water supply's off this is going to be an enormous loss off life coming.

The indiscriminate missile attacks are only going one way. The missiles from Israel to Gaza are all targeted.

 

[Kompany Car]

Iran is a pariah state and until the people in that country rise up en masse it will remain so.

Easier said than done. Khamenei is in charge of the military and police and treats his revolutionary guard well.

Its not just some banana republic, its a country with a population of 90m. For any uprising to succeed in a country as big as Iran you need the military to also be on your side which seems unlikely. Iran's demographics also dont help, most who want change are young, but are a significantly smaller group than those in their 40s who have grown up under the existing regime. This is due to the birthrate reducing from 6 children to 2 children per woman.

Speaking to the few Iranians I know, most are afraid of what the next regime will be if they get rid of the current one. You need to remember that most Iranians thought getting rid of the Shah of Iran was a good thing and look how that turned out. Once bitten, twice shy.

 

[BobKowalski]

I think the sentiment of the Palestinians is that the Arab world will rescue them.

Over the last 5-10 years things have changed considerably and support from the Arab countries isn't so simple or even given anymore. The Saudi's are not going to damage relations with the west by going against Israel. This is especially true whilst the west holds all of the cards in the region due to the depletion and isolation of Russia.

The curveball is and always will be Iran who could become involved militarily but who knows. Iran cannot however do it without Russian support and Russia is a bit busy right now.

In terms of geopolitics, this has never been a better time for the west to pressure the natural alliances in that region and align them towards western foreign policy, the defence of Israel is seemingly a key part of that.

I suspect most Middle East Governments would prefer the Palestinian problem to simply disappear and never bother them again. That said, a severe Israeli reaction will impact on local populations around the Middle East which will put any normalisation of relations on hold.

Iran is a supplier of weapons (including to the Russians) and the IDF have said there is no direct Iranian involvement in the attacks. Iran will continue to agitate from the sidelines. I do wonder how Iran would have turned out if Trump hadn‘t killed the JPAC deal with Iran out of spite - ironically with Netanyahu’s backing. Indeed, I wonder how things would have turned out if we didn’t elect morons to high office, but we do and here we are.

If Israel blockades and then invades Gaza, the pressure on the border with Egypt will increase and that could topple an already unstable Egypt meaning yet more problems. Will Egypt join forces with Israel? How will that impact the December elections in Egypt? As always, one event triggers another and so on.

 

[The blue phantom]

The indiscriminate missile attacks are only going one way. The missiles from Israel to Gaza are all targeted.

Reports coming out, Hospitals, Schools, Hundreds of residential buildings levelled. Yes I know you're going to say Israeli intelligence will point to Hamas hiding in these buildings.

 

[BlueAnorak]

So the official Israeli line now regarding certain supplies getting into Gaza.

All food will be stopped, UN can't get any in too.

One Million children. Fuckin unbelievable.

Awaits condemnation from world leaders?

Hamas clearly want them all to be martyrs.
I suspect they will get their wish.
Isreal CANNOT be expected to leave Hamas in charge regardless of casualties that Isreal incurs.
Isreal offers peace and Palestinian extremists ALWAYS throw it back in their faces. Sadly, a fact of life on this planet of ours.

 

[trueblue1972]

I guess Israel could hand back stolen land too. Unfortunately both aren't going to happen. With indiscriminate missile attacks and now cutting food and water supply's off this is going to be an enormous loss off life coming.

If Israel handed back the land, would they be left in peace?

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Reports coming out, Hospitals, Schools, Hundreds of residential buildings levelled. Yes I know you're going to say Israeli intelligence will point to Hamas hiding in these buildings.

Ethnocrats gonna ethnocrat .

 

[bumbleblue]

What a fucking mess the world is. Hamas fucking reprehensible, and Netanyahu and his mob should hang their heads in shame too. It’s a real pity that no real headway has been made in securing lasting peace there in my life time ( almost 60 years). Fucked if I know what the answer is… but what I do know is , that as usual it will be the ordinary people and the most vulnerable who will pay one way or another. Humanity appears sadly to never learn from history. All our leaders have failed and we have failed to hold them accountable a sorry tale on a global scale.

 

[BlueAnorak]

If Israel handed back the land, would they be left in peace?

You know the answer to that.
To Hamas the only good jew is a dead one.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The bottom line is you either support Isreal in at least it's 1948 boundaries or you probably support the continuation of Hitler's final solution.
In reality, there is no middle ground.