Is there any truth in the rumour that this independent panel are empowered to make judgements on the balance of probability, rather than the higher standard of beyond reasonable doubt?
I'm 20 pages behind so someone else may have answered this already.
The answer is Yes, the issue will be decided on the balance of probabilities, just as the CAS case was.
However.
There is a basic principle that while the standard of proof does not change, the cogency of the evidence necessary to establish that augments according to the seriousness of the allegations. Take an allegation that the local authority makes against a parent it claims has physically abused a child. It is inherently less probable that a parent has deliberately broken a bone than it is that they have slapped a child. So while the standard of proof is the same either way, the quality of the evidence you need to show, on the balance of probability, that the parent broke the child’s bone deliberately is significantly higher than the quality of the evidence you need to show that the child was slapped.
Likewise in this case. What is alleged is there has been a serious, co-ordinated and sustained attempt to defraud our auditors, the premier league, UEFA and others over a period of a decade. Those are very serious allegations, and so the evidence needed to make them out has a different quality to the evidence needed to make out a much less serious accusation. So the evidence needed to establish, even on the balance of probabilities, very serious allegations must be very cogent otherwise the panel can’t be satisfied, even to that standard, simply because the allegations are so serious.
The accusations made against the club are very, very serious.
That being the case, the question the panel will ask itself is this: does the evidence satisfy us, on the balance of probabilities, that the particular charge brought by the Premier League is true? If the evidence lacks the cogency necessary to show we have committed serious breaches of not just PL rules but (as Petrusha has convincingly demonstrated) English criminal law then the charges will fail.
Which is precisely what I expect to happen.