Russian invasion of Ukraine

mrcunny said:
Most of the world and esp Europe havnt stopped buying Russian gas and oil.
Click to expand...
Sadly Europe still buys 3% of it's oil and gas from Russia - getting a lot less but it does.
New contracts banned from 2026 and existing contracts to be banned by 2027.
commission.europa.eu

Commission proposes a plan to phase out Russian gas and oil imports

Read about the EU's plan to phase out Russian gas and oil imports and how it will achieve this without significant economic impact or risks to security of supply
commission.europa.eu commission.europa.eu
 
mrcunny said:
Most of the world and esp Europe havnt stopped buying Russian gas and oil.
Click to expand...

Europe was buying oil and gas under the Russian cap agreement.

China and India saw the chance to screw cheap oil out of Russia and did so. The Indian PM has been claiming he and Trump are best buds so getting hit with tariffs is kind of funny, but it’s pointless. If India agreed to stop buying Russian oil then China would take the slack and resell to India and others.

China is the elephant (or the Giant Panda) in the room on this issue.
 
Hgblue2 said:
Ironically, the great satan Trump was banging on about this very issue for years, and was mocked by our much more sophisticated European elite because of this.

I suspect Trump is looking for a much more wide ranging deal with Russia than simply a ceasefire in Ukraine and has been thinking much more strategically about this conflict from the start.
Click to expand...

Sanctioning India is hardly strategic. The US maintains/sees China as its biggest threat. There are natural tensions between China and India. China is the big boy on the Asian block, India wants to be the big boy on the Asian block. The Indian PM Modi has been having a bromance with Trump, so US interests would be served by good relations with India and as an ally in any friction with China.

So what does Trump do? Piss off Modi and make it expedient for Modi and Xi to set aside their differences and oblige the BRICS nations - including Russia - to stick together. See also Brazil with their arbitrary tariffs based on little more than personal animosity between Trump and Lula.

Trump doesn’t do strategic. He goes in whatever direction his mood takes him.

‘India had faced strong pressure from the Biden administration to cut back its oil purchases from Moscow during the early months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Instead, India bought more, making it the second-biggest buyer of Russian oil after China. That pressure sputtered over time and the U.S. focused more on building strategic ties with India, which is seen as a bulwark against a rising China.’ @ abc

abcnews.go.com

Modi and Trump once called each other good friends. Now the US-India relationship is getting bumpy

The friendliness between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump was seen as a relationship like no other
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 

A Trump-Putin summit will be as useful to Ukraine and democracy as Agent Orange is for gardening.... Great line.​

 
Day 1263 Review:
www.dailykos.com

Ukraine Invasion Day 1,263: TACOs today with Krasnov's Scaramucci-unit deadline

GROK Donald Trump's imposition of a 10-day deadline on Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine, as mentioned in the post, lacks clear consequences, highlighting a potential misunderstanding of diplomatic leverage, especially given the mutual nuclear...
www.dailykos.com
Starting to look like TACO day to me...

also, worrying news on Ukraines drone dominance.
However, Ukraine's anti-drone interceptors look very promising indeed.
 
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BobKowalski said:
Sanctioning India is hardly strategic. The US maintains/sees China as its biggest threat. There are natural tensions between China and India. China is the big boy on the Asian block, India wants to be the big boy on the Asian block. The Indian PM Modi has been having a bromance with Trump, so US interests would be served by good relations with India and as an ally in any friction with China.

So what does Trump do? Piss off Modi and make it expedient for Modi and Xi to set aside their differences and oblige the BRICS nations - including Russia - to stick together. See also Brazil with their arbitrary tariffs based on little more than personal animosity between Trump and Lula.

Trump doesn’t do strategic. He goes in whatever direction his mood takes him.

‘India had faced strong pressure from the Biden administration to cut back its oil purchases from Moscow during the early months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Instead, India bought more, making it the second-biggest buyer of Russian oil after China. That pressure sputtered over time and the U.S. focused more on building strategic ties with India, which is seen as a bulwark against a rising China.’ @ abc

abcnews.go.com

Modi and Trump once called each other good friends. Now the US-India relationship is getting bumpy

The friendliness between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump was seen as a relationship like no other
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
Click to expand...
Biden realised that Putin was bi-passing sanctions by selling oil to India, and asked India politely to please stop. Modi told him to fuck off which he did.

Modi tried the same approach with Trump and gets an extra 25% tariff on all his exports into the US. Congratulations.

These leaders talk tough in public for a domestic audience, but if you think the timing of the meeting between Trump and Putin is totally coincidental then I've got a bridge to sell you.

Regarding this meeting, Trump is well aware of the existence and purpose of BRICS, so I expect the discussion between Trump and Putin to be far more wide ranging than the conflict in Ukraine.

Ultimately I predict a ceasefire, followed by a summit including Zelensky, then a final deal which has been fairly obvious for around 3 years. No NATO membership for Ukraine, a recognition of Crimea, some sort of acceptance of the 'special status' of the 4 regions in the East.

Once the conflict is settled, I expect some sort of rapprochement in the overall relationship between Russia and the US, removal of sanctions, maybe an agreement to discuss nuclear weapon reductions, maybe a minerals deal, not sure, just guessing.

Then a discussion with Modi to smooth ruffled feathers, you know, didn't want to apply sanctions to my good friend and ally India, but had to do it for the greater good bla, bla, bla.

Then it's on to China....
 
Hgblue2 said:
Biden realised that Putin was bi-passing sanctions by selling oil to India, and asked India politely to please stop. Modi told him to fuck off which he did.

Modi tried the same approach with Trump and gets an extra 25% tariff on all his exports into the US. Congratulations.

These leaders talk tough in public for a domestic audience, but if you think the timing of the meeting between Trump and Putin is totally coincidental then I've got a bridge to sell you.

Regarding this meeting, Trump is well aware of the existence and purpose of BRICS, so I expect the discussion between Trump and Putin to be far more wide ranging than the conflict in Ukraine.

Ultimately I predict a ceasefire, followed by a summit including Zelensky, then a final deal which has been fairly obvious for around 3 years. No NATO membership for Ukraine, a recognition of Crimea, some sort of acceptance of the 'special status' of the 4 regions in the East.

Once the conflict is settled, I expect some sort of rapprochement in the overall relationship between Russia and the US, removal of sanctions, maybe an agreement to discuss nuclear weapon reductions, maybe a minerals deal, not sure, just guessing.

Then a discussion with Modi to smooth ruffled feathers, you know, didn't want to apply sanctions to my good friend and ally India, but had to do it for the greater good bla, bla, bla.

Then it's on to China....
Click to expand...

You’re repeating my words back to me. The Biden administration prioritised its concerns with China over India buying Russian oil. Especially as China would just take the slack and resell onto India and others.

Sanctioning India pushes Modi towards China and pretty much the rest of the world since Trump is torching allies everywhere he goes. Trump is also gifting China the lead in clean tech and likely Europe in MRNA vaccine research. China is also testing its weapon tech in the Russia/Ukraine conflict - reason enough for the US to try and halt the conflict. Instead its efforts to date have been a slightly bizarre on/off romance with Putin and contradictory social media posting.

Putin is all in on Ukraine. He has no option other than outright victory. A war predicted to last a week has lasted three and a half years and cost god knows how many lives. Settling for the Eastern rump of Ukraine is not what Russia planned or hoped for. What no one really knows is how bad the situation is in Russia or on the front lines and how much that plays into Putin’s thinking. I suspect both sides would welcome a ceasefire, but without preconditions and a ceasefire will only pause the conflict, not resolve it. The closest parallel is probably the Iraq/Iran war in the eighties which lasted eight years, went nowhere and ended in stalemate.

Personally, I think it’s a coin flip on whether Trump and Putin actually meet and they will only do so if both of them know in advance they can walk away with something. What that ‘something’ is, fuck knows.
 
Hgblue2 said:
Biden realised that Putin was bi-passing sanctions by selling oil to India, and asked India politely to please stop. Modi told him to fuck off which he did.

Modi tried the same approach with Trump and gets an extra 25% tariff on all his exports into the US. Congratulations.

These leaders talk tough in public for a domestic audience, but if you think the timing of the meeting between Trump and Putin is totally coincidental then I've got a bridge to sell you.

Regarding this meeting, Trump is well aware of the existence and purpose of BRICS, so I expect the discussion between Trump and Putin to be far more wide ranging than the conflict in Ukraine.

Ultimately I predict a ceasefire, followed by a summit including Zelensky, then a final deal which has been fairly obvious for around 3 years. No NATO membership for Ukraine, a recognition of Crimea, some sort of acceptance of the 'special status' of the 4 regions in the East.

Once the conflict is settled, I expect some sort of rapprochement in the overall relationship between Russia and the US, removal of sanctions, maybe an agreement to discuss nuclear weapon reductions, maybe a minerals deal, not sure, just guessing.

Then a discussion with Modi to smooth ruffled feathers, you know, didn't want to apply sanctions to my good friend and ally India, but had to do it for the greater good bla, bla, bla.

Then it's on to China....
Click to expand...

Following on from my post this clip gives an insight into what Russian media is saying on a likely US/Russia summit and what to expect. Their impression is that it is done more for show than substance.

 
BobKowalski said:
You’re repeating my words back to me. The Biden administration prioritised its concerns with China over India buying Russian oil. Especially as China would just take the slack and resell onto India and others.

Sanctioning India pushes Modi towards China and pretty much the rest of the world since Trump is torching allies everywhere he goes. Trump is also gifting China the lead in clean tech and likely Europe in MRNA vaccine research. China is also testing its weapon tech in the Russia/Ukraine conflict - reason enough for the US to try and halt the conflict. Instead its efforts to date have been a slightly bizarre on/off romance with Putin and contradictory social media posting.

Putin is all in on Ukraine. He has no option other than outright victory. A war predicted to last a week has lasted three and a half years and cost god knows how many lives. Settling for the Eastern rump of Ukraine is not what Russia planned or hoped for. What no one really knows is how bad the situation is in Russia or on the front lines and how much that plays into Putin’s thinking. I suspect both sides would welcome a ceasefire, but without preconditions and a ceasefire will only pause the conflict, not resolve it. The closest parallel is probably the Iraq/Iran war in the eighties which lasted eight years, went nowhere and ended in stalemate.

Personally, I think it’s a coin flip on whether Trump and Putin actually meet and they will only do so if both of them know in advance they can walk away with something. What that ‘something’ is, fuck knows.
Click to expand...
I stand by my prediction above and you can quote it back to me if it all goes tits up ;)
 
Hgblue2 said:
I stand by my prediction above and you can quote it back to me if it all goes tits up ;)
Click to expand...

Fair enough, but I won’t be quoting anything back, your guess is as good as mine or anyone else’s on how this all ends. I hope there is a ceasefire that Ukraine can accept and this conflict is resolved with Ukraine still standing and largely intact - I think Ukraine will lose some territory in the east, Putin can’t afford to walk away with nothing. It’s regrettable, but I don’t see anyway around that unless Ukraine can force Russia from their territory on the battlefield.
 
Hgblue2 said:
Biden realised that Putin was bi-passing sanctions by selling oil to India, and asked India politely to please stop. Modi told him to fuck off which he did.

Modi tried the same approach with Trump and gets an extra 25% tariff on all his exports into the US. Congratulations.

These leaders talk tough in public for a domestic audience, but if you think the timing of the meeting between Trump and Putin is totally coincidental then I've got a bridge to sell you.

Regarding this meeting, Trump is well aware of the existence and purpose of BRICS, so I expect the discussion between Trump and Putin to be far more wide ranging than the conflict in Ukraine.

Ultimately I predict a ceasefire, followed by a summit including Zelensky, then a final deal which has been fairly obvious for around 3 years. No NATO membership for Ukraine, a recognition of Crimea, some sort of acceptance of the 'special status' of the 4 regions in the East.

Once the conflict is settled, I expect some sort of rapprochement in the overall relationship between Russia and the US, removal of sanctions, maybe an agreement to discuss nuclear weapon reductions, maybe a minerals deal, not sure, just guessing.

Then a discussion with Modi to smooth ruffled feathers, you know, didn't want to apply sanctions to my good friend and ally India, but had to do it for the greater good bla, bla, bla.

Then it's on to China....
Click to expand...
So basically what Putin wants?
 
Ukraine Gallop Poll..
news.gallup.com

Ukrainian Support for War Effort Collapses

New data from Ukraine show the public favors ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has plummeted.
news.gallup.com news.gallup.com

Of course two questions wern't asked. I suspect the answer to these would be very, very different...
I.e.
"Would you be prepared to accept Russian hegemony over Ukraine?"
"Would you be prepared to accept Ukraine being incorporated into the Russian Federation?
 
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